Logistics Systems Dynamics Group

The Logistics Systems Dynamics Group (LSDG) is a collaborative and collegial team interested in understanding the dynamic behaviour of logistical, or supply chain, business systems.

We bring together control theory, good operations management and industrial engineering practice, business process engineering and system dynamics simulation to form an integrated approach to logistics systems dynamics problem solving. We produce high quality and influential research within the Public Value ethos of Cardiff Business School, such as EPSRC research on remanufacturing systems and sustainable supply chain management. Our research on the dynamic behaviour of organisations has a positive impact on our members and collaborators. We add value to the careers of our members, enhance the research reputation of the University, and improve the performance of our collaborators.

The group was established by Professor Denis Towill, a long-serving and distinguished Cardiff University academic. He made a significant contribution to the Business School and the wider University across 50 years and will be remembered for his personal and professional achievements. Professor Towill passed away in August 2015.

In July 2017 we held our first Alumni Conference. Dr Peter McCullen from Brighton University, a long term collaborator with the LSDG, gave The Denis Towill Memorial Lecture, more details can be found on Peter's Blog.

Logistics Systems Dynamics Group alumni conference.

Collaborative research

Academics from the LSDG also participate in Advanced Sustainable Manufacturing Technologies (ASTUTE)

Selected publications

Prak, D. , Teunter, R. and Syntetos, A. 2017. On the calculation of safety stocks when demand is forecasted. European Journal of Operational Research 256 (2), pp.454-461. (10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.035)
Alamri, A. , Harris, I. and Syntetos, A. 2016. Efficient inventory control for imperfect quality items. European Journal of Operational Research 254 (1), pp.92-104. (10.1016/j.ejor.2016.03.058)
Gosling, J. 2016. Establishing a maturity model for design automation in sales-delivery processes of ETO products. Computers in Industry 82 , pp.57-68. (10.1016/j.compind.2016.05.003)
Syntetos, A. et al. 2016. Supply chain forecasting: theory, practice, their gap and the future. European Journal of Operational Research 252 (1), pp.1-26. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.11.010)
Spiegler, V. L. M. et al., 2016. A technique to develop simplified and linearised models of complex dynamic supply chain systems. European Journal of Operational Research 251 (3), pp.888-903. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.004)
Wang, X. and Disney, S. M. 2016. The bullwhip effect: progress, trends and directions. European Journal of Operational Research 250 (3), pp.691-701. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.022)
Hedenstierna, C. and Disney, S. M. 2016. Inventory performance under staggered deliveries and auto-correlated demand. European Journal of Operational Research 249 (3), pp.1082-1091.
Syntetos, A. , Kholidasari, I. and Naim, M. M. 2016. The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: in or out of context?. European Journal of Operational Research 249 (3), pp.853-863. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.021)
Syntetos, A. et al. 2016. On the benefits of delayed ordering. European Journal of Operational Research 248 (3), pp.963-970. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.08.003)
Mitroussi, K. et al. 2016. Performance drivers of shipping loans: an empirical investigation. International Journal of Production Economics 171 (3), pp.438-452. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.09.041)
Purvis, L. et al. 2016. Developing a resilient supply chain strategy during 'boom' and 'bust'. Production Planning & Control 27 (7-8), pp.579-590. (10.1080/09537287.2016.1165306)
Spiegler, V. L. M. et al., 2016. The value of nonlinear control theory in investigating the underlying dynamics and resilience of a grocery supply chain. International Journal of Production Research 54 (1), pp.265-286. (10.1080/00207543.2015.1076945)
Roh, S. et al., 2015. The pre-positioning of warehouses at regional and local levels for a humanitarian relief organisation. International Journal of Production Economics 170 (Part B), pp.616-628. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.01.015)
Rostami-Tabar, B. et al. 2015. Non-stationary demand forecasting by cross-sectional aggregation. International Journal of Production Economics 170 (Part A), pp.297-309. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.10.001)
Disney, S. M. et al. 2015. Fill rate in a periodic review order-up-to policy under auto-correlated normally distributed, possibly negative, demand. International Journal of Production Economics 170 (Part B), pp.501-512. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.07.019)
Sanchez Rodrigues, V. A. , Harris, I. and Mason, R. J. 2015. Horizontal logistics collaboration for enhanced supply chain performance: an international retail perspective. Supply Chain Management : An International Journal 20 (6), pp.631-647. (10.1108/SCM-06-2015-0218)
Hosoda, T. , Disney, S. M. and Gavirneni, N. 2015. The impact of information sharing, random yield, correlation, and lead times in closed loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research 246 (3), pp.827-836.
Potter, A. T. , Towill, D. R. and Christopher, M. 2015. Evolution of the migratory supply chain model. Supply Chain Management : An International Journal 20 (6), pp.603-612. (10.1108/SCM-06-2015-0231)
Rekik, Y. , Syntetos, A. and Jemai, Z. 2015. An e-retailing supply chain subject to inventory inaccuracies. International Journal of Production Economics 167 , pp.139-155. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.04.011)
Syntetos, A. , Zied Babai, M. and Gardner, E. S. 2015. Forecasting intermittent inventory demands: simple parametric methods vs. bootstrapping. Journal of Business Research 68 (8), pp.1746-1752. (10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.034)
Sanchez Rodrigues, V. et al. 2015. UK supply chain carbon mitigation strategies using alternative ports and multimodal freight transport operations. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 78 , pp.40-56. (10.1016/j.tre.2014.12.013)
Syntetos, A. , Babai, M. Z. and Luo, S. 2015. Forecasting of compound Erlang demand. Journal of the Operational Research Society 66 , pp.2061-2074. (10.1057/jors.2015.27)
Boylan, J. E. et al., 2015. Reproducibility in forecasting research. International Journal of Forecasting 31 (1), pp.79-90. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.05.008)
Harris, I. , Wang, Y. and Wang, H. 2015. ICT in multimodal transport and technological trends: unleashing potential for the future. International Journal of Production Economics 159 , pp.88-103. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.09.005)
Gosling, J. et al. 2015. Principles for the design and operation of engineer-to-order supply chains in the construction sector. Production Planning & Control: The Management of Operations 26 (3), pp.203-218. (10.1080/09537287.2014.880816)
Zied Babai, M. , Syntetos, A. and Teunter, R. 2014. Intermittent demand forecasting: An empirical study on accuracy and the risk of obsolescence. International Journal of Production Economics 157 , pp.212-219. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.08.019)
Rostami-Tabar, B. et al. 2014. A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation. Naval Research Logistics 61 (7), pp.489-500. (10.1002/nav.21598)
Lengu, D. , Syntetos, A. and Babai, M. Z. 2014. Spare parts management: Linking distributional assumptions to demand classification. European Journal of Operational Research 235 (3), pp.624-635. (10.1016/j.ejor.2013.12.043)
Harris, I. , Mumford, C. L. and Naim, M. M. 2014. A hybrid multi-objective approach to capacitated facility location with flexible store allocation for green logistics modeling. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 66 , pp.1-22. (10.1016/j.tre.2014.01.010)
Purvis, L. , Gosling, J. and Naim, M. M. 2014. The development of a lean, agile and leagile supply network taxonomy based on differing types of flexibility. International Journal of Production Economics 151 , pp.100-111. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.02.002)
Li, Q. , Disney, S. M. and Gaalman, G. 2014. Avoiding the bullwhip effect using Damped Trend forecasting and the Order-Up-To replenishment policy. International Journal of Production Economics 149 , pp.3-16. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2013.11.010)
Sanchez Rodrigues, V. et al. 2014. Assessing the cost and CO2e impacts of rerouteing UK import containers. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 61 , pp.53-67. (10.1016/j.tra.2013.12.002)
Boute, R. N. et al., 2014. Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research 232 (1), pp.52-63. (10.1016/j.ejor.2013.06.036)
Gallear, D. et al., 2014. An environmental uncertainty-based diagnostic reference tool for evaluating the performance of supply chain value streams. Production Planning & Control 25 (13-14), pp.1182-1197. (10.1080/09537287.2013.808838)
Anno, R. and Logvinenko, T. 2012. On adjunctions for Fourier-Mukai transforms. Advances in Mathematics 231 (3-4), pp.2069-2115. (10.1016/j.aim.2012.06.007)

Some of the projects currently being worked on by members of this group:

Yeo Valley research project

Cardiff Business School has partnered with Yeo Valley, the largest organic dairy producer in the UK, on a project to streamline the company’s forecasting, planning and replenishment systems.

Find out more about the project.

Resilient Remanufacturing Networks: Forecasting, Informatics and Holons

1 October 2016 to 30 September 2018
Sponsored by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Led by Professor Aris Syntetos with Professor Mohamed Naim, Dr Ying Liu (Cardiff School of Engineering)
Award type: Research

To develop and apply a novel inventory control decision support system for closed loop supply chains found in the remanufacturing environment

15 February 2016 to 14 February 2018
Sponsored by Technology Board, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and Qioptiq Ltd
Led by Professor Aris Syntetos
Award type: Knowledge Transfer Partnership

To combine advanced supply chain and 3D Printing solutions

13 January 2016 to 31 January 2018
Sponsored by Technology Board, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and Panalpina World Transport Ltd
Led by Professor Aris Syntetos
Award type: Knowledge Transfer Partnership

Engaged Manufacturing

1 January 2016 to 31 January 2017
Sponsored by Cardiff Business School
Led by Dr Andrew Potter with Dr Daniel Eyers, Dr Jonathan Gosling, Dr Laura Purvis and Dr Michael Ryan
Award type: Research