Simulation in Operational Research

Mae'r digwyddiad hwn wedi dod i ben

Please join us on Thursday 25th October for Professor Owen Jones’ lecture “Simulation in Operational Research”, as part of the PSE College Lecture Series.

This lecture takes place in Lecture Theatre 0.07, Hadyn Ellis Building from 6-7pm, with refreshments available before and afterwards in the foyer.

Simulation in Operational Research

“For distinction sake, a deceiving by words, is commonly called a lye, and a deceiving by actions, gestures, or behaviour, is called simulation.” Robert South, 1697

With the ongoing development of electronic computers, our ability to effectively simulate the world around us has steadily grown, and simulation is now an accepted part of the scientific process. But are we just deceiving ourselves when we use simulations to inform decisions? That is, how do we justify this “willing suspension of belief”?

Behind every great simulation stands a great model, and as the statistician George Box wrote, “…there is no need to ask the question `Is the model true?` If `truth` is to be the `whole truth` the answer must be `No`. The only question of interest is `Is the model illuminating and useful?`" In this talk I will give an eclectic view of the history of simulation, before considering some of the ways in which simulation has enlarged the set of useful models available to operational researchers (and scientists more generally). In particular I will look at how Bayesian statistics can be used to improve our simulations.