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Finance

Our publications cover a range of financial topics, including tax, economics, funding agreements and public finance.

Welsh Budget Update: Outlook ahead of Spending Review 2021

In this Welsh Budget Update ahead of the Spending Review 2021, researchers indicate that over the next three years, day-to-day spending on public services in Wales is set to grow by approximately 3% per year on average in real terms.

Covid-19 in Wales: The mental health and wellbeing impact

This briefing investigates the significant impact that the Covid-19 pandemic has had on the mental health of people in Wales.

Presentation: Senedd Election Briefing 2021

Presentation slides from a Wales Fiscal Analysis election briefing event.

Welsh Election 2021: Fiscal outlook and challenges for the next Welsh Government

This briefing is the last in a series exploring the fiscal outlook for the next Senedd term and the challenges facing the next Welsh Government. Our findings in this briefing point to a challenging and uncertain outlook.

Local Government and the Welsh Budget: Data Tables

Data tables to accompany the report, "Local Government & the Welsh Budget", including projections of spending pressures, revenues and the funding gap.

Local Government & the Welsh Budget: Outlook and challenges for the next Welsh Government

This report finds that based on current UK Government spending plans, funding for Welsh local authorities will fall short of the amount required to meet spending pressures over the next Senedd term.

The NHS and the Welsh Budget: Outlook and challenges for the next Welsh Government

As well as assessing pre-pandemic trends in NHS spending and underlying spending pressures from an ageing population, the report analyses how the Covid-19 pandemic will cause significant additional funding pressures for the NHS over the course of the next Senedd term.

Railway Infrastructure in Wales

This report finds that under a fully devolved system, Wales could have received an extra £514m investment in its rail infrastructure between 2011-12 and 2019-20. The report has been submitted as evidence to the Welsh Affairs Committee’s inquiry into rail infrastructure in Wales.

UK Budget 2021: the implications for Wales and the Welsh budget

This briefing looks at the impact of the 2021 UK Budget on Wales and its public finances, as well as assessing future levels of Welsh funding implied by the Chancellor's spending plans.

Welsh Budget Update: analysis of the budget position for 2020-21 and the Draft Budget for 2021-22

This briefing assesses the Welsh budget position for 2020-21, before analysing the allocations in the Draft Budget for 2021-22, the local government settlement, and the latest devolved tax forecasts and policies.

Welsh Budget Outlook 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to breathtaking levels of additional spending by both the Welsh and UK governments, to support individuals, businesses, and public services through the crisis. This report attempts to take stock following the UK government’s Spending Review and ahead of the Welsh Government’s Draft Budget for 2021-22.

Welsh Budget Briefing

Presentation slides from a Wales Fiscal Analysis budget briefing event.

The future of care in Wales

Presentation slides from a Wales Fiscal Analysis webinar on older adult social care.

Funding the 'firebreak' and beyond: COVID-19, the Welsh budget and supporting the Welsh economy

This report from the Wales Fiscal Analysis team reveals the costs of COVID-19 related business support and public health interventions, as well as assessing the huge budget uncertainties facing the Welsh Government.

The cost of free personal care: Lessons from Scotland

This Wales Fiscal Analysis briefing paper examines the financial lessons that can be learnt from Scotland's introduction of 'free personal care', and estimates the cost of implementing that policy in Wales.

The future of care in Wales: Resourcing social care for older adults

This Wales Fiscal Analysis report identifies four key issues with which future policy in Wales must grapple; namely the level of resourcing required to deliver effective care services, the currently fragmented nature of service provision, low pay and high staff turnover, and the difficulty in projecting and meeting future demand.

Covid-19 and the Welsh economy: working from home

This briefing analyses data from Labour Force Survey and Understanding Society data to determine the share of employees who can work from home in Wales, and the average gross weekly pay of those workers by industry and occupation.

Covid-19 and the Welsh economy: shutdown sectors and key workers

Using Labour Force Survey data, this briefing investigates the groups and economic sectors in Wales most significantly affected by the current pandemic, based on a set of economic and demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity, and income levels.

Covid-19 and the Welsh Government Budget: Update No.2

This briefing analyses the additional funding included in the Welsh Government's May 2020 supplementary budget, as well as the additional allocations made in response to COVID-19.

Covid-19 and the Higher Education Sector in Wales

This Wales Fiscal Analysis Briefing Paper reveals a stark series of findings pointing to a dramatic loss of tuition fee income for the Higher Education sector in Wales as a result of Covid-19.

Covid-19 and the Welsh Government Budget: Update No.1

This briefing provides an update on the Welsh Government’s budgetary response to the Covid-19 pandemic to date and how these measures and further packages will be funded. The last section analyses how the crisis has highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of Wales’ fiscal framework and suggests possible urgent reforms which may aid an effective budgetary response to the crisis.

The Welsh Budget: implications from UK Budget 2020 and the fiscal response to COVID-19

This short briefing analyses the implications of the UK Budget 2020 measures and subsequent announcements on the Welsh Government budget. The analysis is the first of several outputs looking at the fiscal impact of the unprecedented situation regarding COVID-19.

Wales' Fiscal Future: A path to sustainability?

This provides a sober assessment of Wales’ current fiscal position as part of the UK, considers what would need to change for the fiscal deficit to reduce, and finally explores some of the fiscal and economic implications of Welsh independence. While not a comprehensive assessment, it is hoped this report will stimulate an informed and wide-ranging debate.

The Welsh Budget 2020

This Wales Fiscal Analysis presentation was given to audiences in Cardiff and Bangor, analysing the 2020-21 Welsh Government budget.

Modelling behavioural responses to changes in Welsh Rates of Income Tax: Written Evidence

This Written Evidence was submitted to the Welsh Parliament Finance Committee inquiry into the impact of variations in national and sub-national income tax.

Austerity is over - for now

This Wales Fiscal Analysis briefing paper analyses the 2020-21 Welsh Government Draft Budget.

Hey Big Spender?

This briefing paper assesses the fiscal implications for Wales of party manifestos for the 2019 UK General Elections.

Trends in local government finance: October 2019

This briefing paper summarises recent trends in local government revenue and expenditure using the latest outturn data published for the 2018-19 financial year and presents the outlook for future years.

UK Spending Review 2019: the implications for Wales

This Wales Fiscal Analysis briefing sets out the implications for Wales of the UK Government's 2019 Spending Review.

Public spending on the justice system for Wales

As part of the Wales Governance Centre’s project on Justice and Jurisdiction in Wales, this report examines the current scale and composition of public spending on the justice system for Wales.

Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales 2019

The 2019 edition of GERW, an analysis of Wales’ public spending, public sector revenues and the nation’s overall fiscal balance published by Wales Fiscal Analysis.

The Public Sector in Wales

In this Wales Fiscal Analysis report, Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre reveals that in 2018, 20% of employees in Wales were working in the public sector, down from a peak of 27.4% in 2009.

Devolving Welfare: How well would Wales fare?

This report, submitted as evidence to a National Assembly committee inquiry, examines the financial implications of devolving the welfare benefits to Wales in line with Scotland.

Trends in the Welsh Income Tax base: an update

On April 6th, Welsh income taxpayers began paying the Welsh Rates of Income Tax. This report analyses what the latest trends mean for the Welsh income tax base and future Welsh Government budgets.

Spring Statement Briefing, March 2019

This briefing looks at what the March 2019 Spring Statement and forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) tell us about future Welsh budgets and Welsh public services.

Cut to the bone? An analysis of Local Government Finances in Wales, 2009-10 to 2017-18, and the outlook to 2023-24

This report from our ‘Wales Fiscal Analysis’ project shows that Welsh local authorities received £918.5m less from Welsh Government grants in 2017-18, compared to 2009-10.

Counting Consequentials: Analysing the Welsh Government Final Budget 2019-20 and Local Government Settlement

This briefing by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team looks at the changes from the Draft Budget in October, the implications for Welsh Government departmental spending and local authorities, and briefly assesses the outlook for future Welsh budgets beyond 2019-20.

The Welsh Tax Base: Risks and Opportunities after Fiscal Devolution

Written by our researchers for the Wales Centre for Public Policy, this report highlights that the performance of the Welsh economy will directly impact potential future tax receipts.

Welsh Government Budgetary Trade-offs: Looking Forward to 2021-22

Public services in Wales could be facing another four years of cuts according to this report, jointly published by two think tanks based at the University.

Fair Funding for Taxing Times? Assessing the Fiscal Framework Agreement

Published by our researchers and the Institute for Fiscal Studies, this report assesses the new funding agreement between HM Treasury and the Welsh Government.

Barnett Squeezed? Options for a Funding Floor after Tax Devolution

This report assesses three options for the floor, and considers how such a floor might interact with the Welsh block grant after taxes are devolved to Wales from April 2018.

For Wales Don’t (Always) See Scotland: Adjusting the Welsh Block Grant after Tax Devolution

In this paper, we analyse the different methods of adjusting the Welsh Block and how these could affect the Welsh Government’s budget and budgetary risks after tax devolution.

Devolving Stamp Duty and Landfill Tax to Wales

The report proposes a decoupling of the London and South East England property market from the calculation of Wales’ eventual budget settlement to mitigate the more extreme budget consequences of devolving Stamp Duty to Wales.

Estimating Wales’ Net Contribution to the European Union

The report is a part of our ongoing research projects in public finance and the impact of the European referendum in Wales.

Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales 2016

A comprehensive multi-year analysis of Wales’ public spending, public sector revenues and the nation’s overall fiscal balance published by the Wales Governance Centre.

Income Tax and Wales: The Risks and Rewards of New Model Devolution

This report demonstrates that the method chosen to reduce the Welsh block grant to account for the additional income tax revenues has the potential to cause losses of hundreds of millions of pounds each year to the Welsh budget.