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Finance

Our publications cover a range of financial topics, including tax, economics, funding agreements and public finance.

Trends in local government finance: October 2019

Trends in local government finance: October 2019

24 October 2019

This briefing paper summarises recent trends in local government revenue and expenditure using the latest outturn data published for the 2018-19 financial year and presents the outlook for future years.

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UK Spending Review 2019: the implications for Wales

UK Spending Review 2019: the implications for Wales

5 September 2019

This Wales Fiscal Analysis briefing sets out the implications for Wales of the UK Government's 2019 Spending Review.

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Public spending on the justice system for Wales

Public spending on the justice system for Wales

5 August 2019

As part of the Wales Governance Centre’s project on Justice and Jurisdiction in Wales, this report examines the current scale and composition of public spending on the justice system for Wales.

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Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales 2019

Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales 2019

29 July 2019

The 2019 edition of GERW, an analysis of Wales’ public spending, public sector revenues and the nation’s overall fiscal balance published by Wales Fiscal Analysis.

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The Public Sector in Wales

The Public Sector in Wales

19 June 2019

In this Wales Fiscal Analysis report, Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre reveals that in 2018, 20% of employees in Wales were working in the public sector, down from a peak of 27.4% in 2009.

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Devolving Welfare: How well would Wales fare?

Devolving Welfare: How well would Wales fare?

11 April 2019

This report, submitted as evidence to a National Assembly committee inquiry, examines the financial implications of devolving the welfare benefits to Wales in line with Scotland.

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Trends in the Welsh Income Tax base: an update

Trends in the Welsh Income Tax base: an update

8 April 2019

On April 6th, Welsh income taxpayers began paying the Welsh Rates of Income Tax. This report analyses what the latest trends mean for the Welsh income tax base and future Welsh Government budgets.

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Spring Statement Briefing, March 2019

Spring Statement Briefing, March 2019

15 March 2019

This briefing looks at what the March 2019 Spring Statement and forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) tell us about future Welsh budgets and Welsh public services.

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Cut to the bone? An analysis of Local Government Finances in Wales, 2009-10 to 2017-18, and the outlook to 2023-24

Cut to the bone? An analysis of Local Government Finances in Wales, 2009-10 to 2017-18, and the outlook to 2023-24

7 February 2019

This report from our ‘Wales Fiscal Analysis’ project shows that Welsh local authorities received £918.5m less from Welsh Government grants in 2017-18, compared to 2009-10.

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Counting Consequentials: Analysing the Welsh Government Final Budget 2019-20 and Local Government Settlement

Counting Consequentials: Analysing the Welsh Government Final Budget 2019-20 and Local Government Settlement

7 February 2019

This briefing by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team looks at the changes from the Draft Budget in October, the implications for Welsh Government departmental spending and local authorities, and briefly assesses the outlook for future Welsh budgets beyond 2019-20.

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The Welsh Tax Base: Risks and Opportunities after Fiscal Devolution

The Welsh Tax Base: Risks and Opportunities after Fiscal Devolution

1 July 2018

Written by our researchers for the Wales Centre for Public Policy, this report highlights that the performance of the Welsh economy will directly impact potential future tax receipts.

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Welsh Government Budgetary Trade-offs: Looking Forward to 2021-22

Welsh Government Budgetary Trade-offs: Looking Forward to 2021-22

1 September 2017

Public services in Wales could be facing another four years of cuts according to this report, jointly published by two think tanks based at the University.

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Fair Funding for Taxing Times? Assessing the Fiscal Framework Agreement

Fair Funding for Taxing Times? Assessing the Fiscal Framework Agreement

1 February 2017

Published by our researchers and the Institute for Fiscal Studies, this report assesses the new funding agreement between HM Treasury and the Welsh Government.

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Barnett Squeezed? Options for a Funding Floor after Tax Devolution

Barnett Squeezed? Options for a Funding Floor after Tax Devolution

1 December 2016

This report assesses three options for the floor, and considers how such a floor might interact with the Welsh block grant after taxes are devolved to Wales from April 2018.

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For Wales Don’t (Always) See Scotland: Adjusting the Welsh Block Grant after Tax Devolution

For Wales Don’t (Always) See Scotland: Adjusting the Welsh Block Grant after Tax Devolution

1 October 2016

In this paper, we analyse the different methods of adjusting the Welsh Block and how these could affect the Welsh Government’s budget and budgetary risks after tax devolution.

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Devolving Stamp Duty and Landfill Tax to Wales

Devolving Stamp Duty and Landfill Tax to Wales

1 July 2016

The report proposes a decoupling of the London and South East England property market from the calculation of Wales’ eventual budget settlement to mitigate the more extreme budget consequences of devolving Stamp Duty to Wales.

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Estimating Wales’ Net Contribution to the European Union

Estimating Wales’ Net Contribution to the European Union

1 April 2016

The report is a part of our ongoing research projects in public finance and the impact of the European referendum in Wales.

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Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales 2016

Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales 2016

1 April 2016

A comprehensive multi-year analysis of Wales’ public spending, public sector revenues and the nation’s overall fiscal balance published by the Wales Governance Centre.

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Income Tax and Wales: The Risks and Rewards of New Model Devolution

Income Tax and Wales: The Risks and Rewards of New Model Devolution

1 February 2016

This report demonstrates that the method chosen to reduce the Welsh block grant to account for the additional income tax revenues has the potential to cause losses of hundreds of millions of pounds each year to the Welsh budget.

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