Centre for Price and Inflation at Cardiff
Our aim is to influence the academic community and to inform policy through the creation of a network of researchers and policymakers from across the UK, Europe and the world.
The Centre for Price and Inflation (CPI) explores a variety of data on prices in order to develop the understanding and modelling of inflation, in addition to the behaviour of prices in relation to both firms and consumers.
The group has close links with the ONS and other institutions such as the Bank of England and Bank of France. Since 2014, The Centre has hosted an annual workshop organised jointly with the ONS held at Cardiff. Keynote speakers have included Yoel Finkel, Associate National Statistician from the Central Bureau of Statistics (Israel), Fabio Bacchini, Head of Division for data analysis and economic research ISTAT (Italy).
The group seeks to develop the design and implementation of price-indices, right through from their theoretical underpinnings to their practical application. It has also developed the statistical tools for applying survival analysis to price data to better measure nominal rigidity and the design of monetary policy. Wider issues, ranging from surveys of expectations and big data are also studied.
The CPI research group adopts an interdisciplinary approach, which draws on economics, marketing and accounting. Our aim is to influence the academic community and to inform policy through the creation of a network of researchers and policymakers from across the UK, Europe and the world.
Current research themes
- Understanding and modelling inflation as a macroeconomic phenomenon which arises from microeconomic behaviour.
- Understanding and modelling the way prices and wages are determined in a way that is consistent with the microeconomic data on prices and wages.
- Developing better the design of price indices both in theory and in terms of better implementation from both an economic and statistical perspective.
- Integrating the behavioural approach to understand the consumer choice and the pricing behaviour of firms.
- Relating the micro data on inflationary expectations to the behaviour of consumers and inflation.
- Behavioural analysis of cognitive styles and consumer innovativeness in a range of areas such as brand choice, technology consumer behaviour, technology acceptance and electronic marketing services.
Members of the CPI group collaborate with a range of academic and non-academic partners. Examples include:
- Office for National Statistics (ONS): Projects include ‘Testing Item Selection Procedures on TNS Data’ (2011-2012), Stock-weighted House Price Index, England and Wales: 1995 to 2015 preliminary estimates (2016-18), The use of Scanner data in the Living cost and food survey (2017-2018).
- The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR). As a response the pandemic, we collaborated in developing the Lockdown weighted CPI inflation measure from April 2020 – April 2021.
- Bank of England: Professor Huw Dixon was an external consultant on a project with Stephen Millard, entitled ‘How should we respond to sector-specific shocks?’ (2021).
- Bank of Greece. Huw Dixon is consultant on the Price-setting Microdata Analysis Network (PRISMA) (2021 onwards).
- European Stability Mechanism (Luxembourg). Konstantinos Theodoridis is currently Principal Economist working on a range of projects.
- Banque de France: Professor Huw Dixon was a Visiting Scholar to work on the project ‘Nominal rigidities in France. Testing different pricing behaviour’ (2008-2010).
CPI staff have been working on the core research themes since 2009 and have published many influential papers on a range of topics. These include the following publications.
- Easaw, J. and Golinelli, R. 2021. Professionals inflation forecasts: the two dimensions of forecaster inattentiveness. Oxford Economic Papers (10.1093/oep/gpab012)
- Kara, E. and Yates, T. 2021. A case against a four percent inflation target. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 53 (5), pp.1097-1119. (10.1111/jmcb.12765)
- Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2021. Public opinion as nowcast: consistency and the role of news uncertainty. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 45 (2), pp.100-110. (10.1080/0022250X.2020.1732371)
- Dixon, H. , Luintel, K. and Tian, K. 2020. The impact of the 2008 crisis on UK prices: what we can learn from the CPI microdata. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 82 (6), pp.1322-1341. (10.1111/obes.12373)
- Mumtaz, H. and Theodoridis, K. 2020. Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Journal of Monetary Economics 114 , pp.262-282. (10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.03.011)
- Dixon, H. , Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2020. Forecasting inflation gap persistence: do financial sector professionals differ from non-financial sector ones?. International Journal of Finance and Economics 25 (3), pp.461-474. (10.1002/ijfe.1762)
- Dixon, H. 2020. Will CPIH inflation understate inflation for April 2020?. [Online].www.niesr.ac.uk/blog: National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Available athttps://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-cpih-inflation-understate-inflation-april-2020.
- Dixon, H. 2020. The measurement of inflation during the lockdown: a trial calculation. Working paper. National Institute of Economic and Social ResearchAvailable athttps://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/measurement-inflation-during-lockdown-trial-calculation.
- Zhou, P. and Dixon, H. 2019. The determinants of price rigidity in the UK: Analysis of the CPI and PPI microdata and application to macrodata modelling. Manchester School 87 (5), pp.640-677. (10.1111/manc.12263)
- Dixon, H. D. and Tian, K. 2017. What we can learn about the behavior of firms from the average monthly frequency of price-changes: An application to the UK CPI data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 79 (6), pp.907-932. (10.1111/obes.12173)
- Yan, J. et al., 2016. Asymmetric demand patterns for products with added nutritional benefits and products without nutritional benefits. European Journal of Marketing 50 (9/10), pp.1672 -1702. (10.1108/EJM-06-2015-0356)
- Kara, E. 2015. The reset inflation puzzle and the heterogeneity in price stickiness. Journal of Monetary Economics 76 , pp.29-37. (10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.07.002)
- Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. H. 2014. Sampling schemes for price index construction: a performance comparison across the classification of individual consumption by purpose food groups. Journal of Applied Statistics 41 (7), pp.1453-1470. (10.1080/02664763.2014.881466)
- Cavalcanti, P. R. , Oliveira-Castro, J. M. and Foxall, G. R. 2013. Individual differences in consumer buying patterns: A behavioral economic analysis. The Psychological Record 63 (2), pp.259-276. (10.11133/j.tpr.2013.63.2.003)
- Foxall, G. R. and Sigurdsson, V. 2013. Introduction to the special issue: Consumer behavior analysis: Behavioral economics meets the marketplace [Editorial]. The Psychological Record 63 (2), pp.231-238. (10.11133/j.tpr.2013.63.2.001)
- Wells, V. K. and Foxall, G. R. 2013. Matching, demand, maximization, and consumer choice. The Psychological Record 63 (2), pp.239-258. (10.11133/j.tpr.2013.63.2.002)
- Dixon, H. and Tian, K. 2013. What we can learn about the behavior of firms from the average monthly frequency of price-changes: an application to the UK CPI data. Working paper. Cardiff: Cardiff University
- Dixon, H. D. 2012. A unified framework for using micro-data to compare dynamic time-dependent price-setting models. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 12 (1)(10.1515/1935-1690.2220)
- Dixon, H. D. and Le Bihan, H. 2012. Generalised Taylor and Generalised Calvo price and wage setting: micro-evidence with macro implications. Economic Journal 122 (560), pp.532-554. (10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02497.x)
- Dixon, H. D. and Kara, E. 2011. Contract length heterogeneity and the persistence of monetary shocks in a dynamic generalized Taylor economy. European Economic Review 55 (2), pp.280-292. (10.1016/j.euroecorev.2010.05.003)
- Foxall, G. R. 2010. Accounting for consumer choice: Inter-temporal decision making in behavioural perspective. Marketing Theory 10 (4), pp.315-345. (10.1177/1470593110382823)
- Dixon, H. D. and Kara, E. 2010. Can we explain inflation persistence in a way that is consistent with the microevidence on nominal rigidity?. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42 (1), pp.151-170. (10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00282.x)
- Diewert, W. E. , Heravi, S. and Silver, M. 2009. Hedonic imputation versus time dummy hedonic indexes. In: Diewert, W. E. , Greenlees, J. S. and Hulten, C. R. eds. Price index concepts and measurement. NBER Book Series Studies in Income and Wealth Vol. 70.Chicago: University of Chicago Press. , pp.161-202.
Professor of Quantitative Analysis
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Professor of Economics
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