Strengthening Indonesia’s emergency care with maths
We are working alongside Indonesian partners to transform how emergency services are designed, deployed and delivered using our world-leading mathematical modelling expertise.
We are using advanced mathematical modelling and international partnership to support Indonesia in building a faster emergency ambulance service, helping save lives in one of the world’s most challenging environments.
Every second counts in a medical emergency.
In Indonesia, where cities like Jakarta face extreme congestion, frequent natural disasters, and uneven access to health services, rapid emergency care has long been out of reach for many communities.
Recognising this urgent challenge, we are working alongside Indonesian partners to transform how emergency services are designed, deployed and delivered using our world-leading mathematical modelling expertise.
We conducted the first comprehensive study of emergency service use in Indonesia.
We worked with the Indonesian charity Ambulans 118, Jakarta’s emergency 119 service, the Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust, and the Indonesian Ministry of Health to gather responses from more than 2,000 hospital patients.
The patients’ feedback revealed that many were unaware an ambulance service existed. Even those in life-threatening situations often travelled by motorbike, taxi or public transport.
This research highlighted the risk to life among the population, and directly informed the establishment of Indonesia’s first coordinated, free-to-use ambulance service in Jakarta, and the creation of a new Health Agency department responsible for emergency and crisis response, employing almost 1,000 staff.
We’re using maths to address these challenges, developing new models capable of working in complex, data-scarce environments.
Strengthening emergency care in Indonesia
Our mathematical modelling is supporting Indonesia to build a faster, fairer emergency ambulance service.
Through innovative tools, international partnerships and a commitment to improving survival rates, we are helping shape a system designed to protect communities today and for the future.
This is Future Generation Thinking.
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A nationwide challenge
Indonesia faces intense traffic, natural disasters and limited ambulance provision, making rapid emergency care difficult for millions of people across its cities. -
Understanding real need
We conducted Indonesia’s first large-scale emergency demand study, revealing how and why patients travel to hospital, and where the system struggles to respond. -
Using maths to save lives
Our models forecast demand, simulate real-world traffic and optimise where different emergency vehicles should be placed to improve survival outcomes. -
Saving lives in Jakarta
Jakarta’s new coordinated 119 service now uses over 100 ambulances and 20 motorbike paramedics, guided by our modelling to reach people faster.
Our work in Indonesia builds on more than a decade of mathematical innovation led by Professor Paul Harper.
His research has advanced how emergency medical services can be modelled and optimised, from developing survival-based ambulance allocation strategies to pioneering early methods for forecasting demand and improving resource deployment.
These foundations allowed us to develop bespoke tools for Jakarta, including geospatial forecasts, machine-learning-driven demand models and simulations that capture real-world traffic, response variability and the value of rapid-response motorbikes.
Our models have illuminated where different vehicle types should be stationed, how resources should scale, and which configurations save the most lives.
These models account for Jakarta’s unique conditions, from intense traffic patterns to the need for multiple vehicle types, and are centred on improving patient outcomes rather than simply meeting time targets. This future-thinking approach has enabled local decision-makers to place resources where they have the greatest impact.
“We have shown how mathematical modelling can help countries design emergency services that save lives, even in the most challenging environments. When you unite data, local insight and shared purpose, you can build systems that protect communities for generations.”
— Professor Paul Harper
Our work has directly supported the creation of a new unified emergency ambulance service in Jakarta.
The city has since deployed over 100 new ambulances including paramedic-staffed motorbikes, with our modelling identifying where these rapid-response units can reach people fastest and save the most lives.
Our research also identified a critical gap in emergency medicine education and training. With no recognised paramedic profession in Indonesia, patient safety was at risk. Through our partnership, the Ministry of Health now recognises the importance of paramedic medicine and has commissioned paramedic training across several major Indonesian cities, supported by senior staff at the Welsh Ambulance Service.
Since launching, total annual demand for ambulances across Jakarta has increased by 65%, highlighting a vital need and increasing demand for such life-saving emergency services.
We are continuing to monitor survival rates, train staff and are working to expand the approach across other Indonesian cities. By bringing together data, partnership and purpose, we are helping to build emergency systems that protect not only people today but communities for generations to come.
“Working with Cardiff University has transformed how we understand and deliver emergency care. Their mathematical modelling has helped us reach patients faster, save lives, and build a system that gives people across Jakarta a better chance of survival.”
— Professor Doctor Aryono D Pusponegoro, Director, 118 Indonesian National Emergency Ambulance Service Foundation
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