Urgent action is needed to protect Somalia from a potentially unprecedented weather event, experts warn

Urgent investment is needed to ensure Somalia is prepared for a rare weather event that could be more severe due to the impact of climate change, academics warn.

Cardiff University leads a multidisciplinary research collaboration representing academia and multiple non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to explore Somalia’s 2023 El Niño floods and lessons learned from a similar event in 1997. The research, which is yet to undergo peer review, has been released as a pre-print because academics believe the situation ahead of this year’s Deyr season, the secondary, shorter rainy season in the Horn of Africa, typically running from October to December, could be much more serious and so the findings have urgent implications for planning now.

Based on this work, authors have teamed up with the regional climate centre ICPAC on a briefing paper to make the case to donors to scale up funding.

This year’s Deyr season is forecast to coincide with both strong El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions.

El Niño is a natural weather pattern but experts predict this year could be one of the strongest ever recorded. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is another climate phenomenon, defined by the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. These conditions occurring together look set to bring extreme weather to Somalia.

The only previous Deyr seasons with this combination were 1997 and 2023, both associated with exceptional rainfall and widespread flooding. Current forecasts show a stronger signal for extreme rainfall than was evident at the same stage before the 2023 floods.

While academics note the 2023 floods were severe, they say the rainfall in 1997 was substantially more extreme. Since then, global temperatures have risen by around 0.7°C, increasing atmospheric moisture and the potential intensity of rainfall.

Somalia’s 2023 anticipatory action (AA), brought about in response to 1997, saw $24m being spent on preparedness and early response. It was the largest-ever scale of AA linked to a seasonal forecast. Action included fixing breaks in river banks, pre-positioning relief supplies in areas due to be flooded, protecting water points and properties, restocking health centres and sending early warning messages to communities.

A total of 188 flood-related deaths occurred; 90% fewer than 1997, the last time similar climatic conditions were seen.

For their paper, which has been made available as a preprint, the academic team reflect on the role AA played in reducing mortality.

They conclude that while actions taken since 2023 have strengthened preparedness, these systems have not yet been tested against a 1997-level event - or worse.

Dr David MacLeod, based at Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, who led the research, said: “The measures taken in 2023 demonstrated that acting ahead of floods can protect lives, livelihoods and humanitarian resources. But it should be viewed as a successful dress rehearsal, not evidence that systems are ready for a larger event.

“An event comparable to or exceeding 1997 could have unprecedented humanitarian consequences.”

“Somalia is better prepared than in 2023, but the risks it faces may be considerably greater. Now is the time to match preparedness with the resources needed to act.

“While we document significant progress in forecasting, early warning and early action, we also note that exposure to extreme rainfall was substantially lower than in 1997 - and thus we cannot confidently attribute the lower mortality to the anticipatory action taken in 2023.

“Not only that, humanitarian funding has fallen sharply since 2023, while operational costs have increased by around 25% following disruption to regional supply chains associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

In the briefing paper, the team give the following recommendations:

• Scale up flexible, front-loaded anticipatory financing before flood impacts occur.
• Invest in delivery capacity, including logistics, procurement, cash systems, humanitarian access, coordination and staff protection.
• Support anticipatory action at scale, reducing humanitarian impacts and the cost of emergency response.

Dr Catalina Jaime, Head of Secretariat at the Risk-Informed Early Action Partnership and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lead author, said: “This research demonstrates that early action is not only possible, it is essential. The lessons from Somalia show that when forecasts, risk analysis and flexible financing come together, even the most complex crises can be managed proactively. With an intense El Niño likely, now is the moment for governments, donors and partners to scale up early action together urgently.”

To view the briefing paper, 'Avert unprecedented flood impacts Somalia: scale Anticipatory Action now', click here.

To read about the underlying research, available as a preprint, click here.