Challenging Perspectives on the French Presidential Elections

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An online roundtable hosted by the Global Language-based Area Studies research theme at Cardiff’s School of Modern Languages. Speakers include Professor Alistair Cole (Hong Baptist University), Dr Emilie Tran (Hong Kong Baptist University) and Dr Nicholas Startin (Bath University).

Firstly, a contribution will be made by Professor Alistair Cole (Hong Baptist University) which will centre upon the reasons explaining the likely re-election of Emmanuel Macron for a second term.

Secondly, Dr Emilie Tran (Hong Kong Baptist University) will discuss the stakes of the presidential race for the French living abroad.

Finally, a presentation by Dr Nicholas Startin (Bath University) will focus on the centrality of the European dimension in the 2022 French Presidential election.

Speaker 1:  Professor Alistair Cole (Hong Kong Baptist University)

The French Presidential Election of 2022: en attendant Macron?
Abstract
French presidential elections are key contests in France’s democratic game. The 2022 campaign reveals an apparent paradox: during a period of sustained crisis, with France presided over by a ‘disruptive’ president, rarely has the presidential election been such a low-key affair and the eventual result so predictable. Hence, the title of this communication: en attendant Macron.

The Macron period reveals several enigmas. Elected as President in 2017 on the basis of contrasting, potentially contradictory dynamics (the equilibra of en même temps, the Manichean reduction of political combats to ‘progressives versus nationalists’) Macron ‘s success might be interpreted favorably as that of a political entrepreneur whose fortunes lie closely in the rejection of the existing party system, its dislocation and reconfiguration. A rather less favorable interpretation would be that of a political trickster, who set out to subvert the system that carried him to power. As a summary judgment, while the Macron entreprise has been crowned in success political terms (via the gradual sapping of political adversaries and a permanent process of triangulation), the social, economic and international record is murky.

Elected to office promising ‘revolution’ or at least reform. Macron has had to face down successive crises.  Rather like the entire Macron period, the 2022 campaign was (barely) fought under the backdrop of crisis. Indeed, crisis as a mode of management– social, health, international – was of the more surprising developments of the Macron presidency. Set against this general backdrop, the contribution centres on the reasons explaining the likely re-election of Emmanuel Macron for a second term.

Biography
Alistair Cole is Professor and Head of the Department of Government and International Studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. During his long period at Cardiff University (1999-2019), Professor Cole was notably co-creator of the European Governance, Identity and Public Policy research unit (EGIPP), housed within the School of European Studies.  Reflection in this talk develops his thinking in the book Emmanuel Macron and the Two Years that changed France (Manchester University Press, 2019).


Speaker 2:  Dr Emilie Tran (Hong Kong Baptist University)

The political weight of the French living abroad

Abstract
The French living abroad [Français de l’étranger] have been increasing in number over the past twenty years. This community of three million people, the equivalent of three cities like Marseille, is noticed for its contribution to the economic, linguistic and cultural influence of France. They also represent a significant political weight that all the candidates of the upcoming French presidential elections, are well aware of. In early January, Eric Zemmour, sent a three-minute video message to the French living abroad. Valérie Pécresse did a one-hour videoconference with a thousand French people scattered all over the world, whereas Emmanuel Macron sent them e-letters. As a matter of fact, in 2017, the French living abroad voted overwhelmingly for Macron: more than 40% in the first round, far ahead of François Fillon, and 93% in the second round, against Marine Le Pen.

In 2002 there were only 385,000 registered voters abroad; in 2017, there were 1.268 million; and there are now 1.614 million. In a narrow vote, the ballots of the French abroad can actually tip the outcome! The 5 cities or regions with the biggest number of French residents represent 40.3% of voters. The largest is Geneva: with 153,400 French people registered, it is the equivalent of a major city in France. Dr Emilie Tran, an elected representative of the French living abroad (Conseillère des Français de l’étranger), will discuss the stakes of the presidential race for the French living abroad.

Biography
Dr Emilie Tran is a French national of Chinese descent. She is an Assistant Professor and the Director of the European Studies programme at the Hong Kong Baptist University. She researches China's relations with Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, Twitter and Health Diplomacy, and the overseas Chinese. She authored the chapter “The Yellow Vest Movement: Causes, Consequences and Significance”, in H. Drake, A. Cole, S. Meunier and V. Tiberj (Eds.), Developments in French Politics 6, Palgrave Macmillan, 2021. She is an elected official [Conseillère des Français de l’étranger], representing the French living abroad (2018-2025). In 2020, she received a national distinction bestowed by the French Republic on distinguished academics and teachers for their valuable service to universities, education and science: she became Chevalier de l’Ordre des Palmes académiques for her valuable and impactful work in the France-Hong Kong academic collaboration. In 2021, she received the President’s Award for Outstanding Performance in Teaching.


Speaker 3:  Dr Nicholas Startin (Bath University)

A vision for Europe or a vision for France? The EU as an issue in the 2022 French Presidential elections

Abstract
The presentation focuses on the centrality of the European dimension in the 2022 French Presidential election. It begins by exploring how the EU, both as an issue and an entity, was framed by the principal candidates during the campaign. It focuses, initially, on Emmanuel Macron and his ‘European vision’ drawing on the context of the French Presidency of the EU from January 2022 onwards. The presentation then explores the major differences in the campaign, in both policy and rhetoric on ‘Europe’, between Macron and his main rivals (Marine Le Pen, Valérie Pécresse, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eric Zemmour).  The analysis also includes discussion of how COVID19 and the War in Ukraine became part of a wider debate about ‘Europe’ and its future. The presentation also explores the salience of the European question in terms of its impact on French voters during both the first and second rounds of the campaign. It concludes with an analysis of the potential significance of the result for France’s EU partners, and for the EU as a whole, over the five-year Presidential term.

Biography
Dr Nick Startin is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Global Governance Institute in Brussels. He is the former Chair of the Academic Association of Contemporary European Studies (UACES) and former Head of Politics, Languages and International Studies (PoLIS) at the University of Bath, where he retains honorary status. He begins a new teaching role at John Cabot University in Rome in September. His research focuses on Euroscepticism and on the Radical Right in Europe, including the Rassemblement National in France. Nick is a regular media contributor on outlets such as the BBC and France24.

Event format & recording
The event will take place online as a Zoom webinar and will be recorded for publication after the event.

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