Decoding the spatial and temporal development of risk after large earthquakes

This event has ended.

Large earthquakes are catastrophic events whose effects last for generations after the shaking stops. Focussing on the Longmen Shan, site of the magnitude 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake, we seek to understand how communities recover, rebuild, and prepare for future large earthquakes.

We examine the recovery and rebuilding process in 236 villages across the past decade in the face of new hazards that form after earthquakes, rapid post-earthquake reconstruction, and a net migration out of the area. We show that social vulnerability and hazard coevolve particularly in areas exposed to post-earthquake debris flows.

Our work demonstrates that the Chinese policy of 3-year reconstruction has dramatically underestimated the magnitude of post-earthquake hazard and, while decreasing risk and improved social vulnerability in the short term, may have increased exposure of vulnerable populations through time.