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Embracing uncertainty in healthcare: Using probabilistic forecasting and planning to make better decisions (day 1)

This is the booking page to attend Day 1 only. You can also book to attend both days or Day 2 only.

NHS workers will receive a 50% discount. Please book as usual and we will refund after booking.

Do you always set plans and rarely achieve them because by the time they are published things changed? Do you generate a forecast and it’s always wrong?  If these questions are familiar, this workshop is for you. It’s not your fault if your forecast is wrong and your plan fails – traditional deterministic forecasting and planning is seriously incomplete because it ignores uncertainties.

At present, healthcare planning and forecasting is primarily deterministic. Decision making based on deterministic analysis are made based on exact numbers (average) and generally follows a “go-no go” framework. If we forecast and plan too low, we cause shortages and plan disruption, if we forecast and plan too high, we create waste and inefficiency. Therefore, decision making based on deterministic analysis may result in aggressive or conservative cases which may lead to suboptimal plans. Moreover, changes in patients’ needs, demography, regulatory framework, health services triggered and driven by crisis, innovation in treatments, technologies and care models introduce new uncertainties that cannot be solely addresses by deterministic forecasting and planning.

Healthcare planers are looking for approaches to address challenges related to uncertainties in the sector. Probabilistic forecasting and planning techniques have the potential to address these concerns and consider various type of uncertainties facing planners in more rigorous manner. There is a clear need in the healthcare to highlight how probabilistic forecasting and planning can be used to address uncertainty challenges facing the sector.

In this workshop you will:

  • discover how probabilistic planning and forecasting can empower your organisation to make better decisions
  • learn how to use R software to produce probabilistic forecast.

Your trainer will be Bahman Rostami-Tabar.

Enrol on this course

Start date Days and times
16 November 2020 16 November 2020
£100 (Day 1 only)

Who it’s for

  • NHS staff: data analysts, planners and decision makers, clinicians, etc
  • It is available to whoever interested in the uncertainty in healthcare.

What you’ll learn

  • Describe uncertainties facing healthcare and their consequences
  • Quantify healthcare uncertainties
  • Identify benefits of probabilistic planning and forecasting
  • Produce probabilistic forecast and measure its accuracy
  • Distinguish probabilistic forecasting from statistical forecasting
  • Include probabilistic planning and forecasting in current processes.

Topics covered

  • Uncertainty in healthcare
  • Probabilistic forecasting and planning.


  • Have a greater appreciation and understanding of healthcare uncertainty and its consequences
  • Gain expertise to apply probabilistic planning and forecasting in an organisation
  • Learn how to quantify uncertainty
  • Gain insights from successful cases in using probabilistic planning and forecasting
  • Hear from three unique companies in the World that use probabilistic forecasting and planning in their solution.


Cardiff Business School Postgraduate Teaching Centre
Colum Road
CF10 3EU

We offer a number of exciting programmes including Lean and Management courses, which enable you to gain new perspectives on a variety of business and management issues.