Professor Patrick Minford

Professor of Applied Economics

: minfordp@cardiff.ac.uk
: +44 (0)29 2087 5728
: E26, Aberconway Building, Colum Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF10 3EU

: Available for postgraduate supervision

My research interests are in macroeconomic and trade modelling and in macroeconomic policy. I teach macroeconomics to MSc and PhD students. You can find details of my activities on my web page

I am a macroeconomist holding the chair of Applied Economics at Cardiff University where I direct the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics, which publishes forecasts and analysis of the Uk and world economy. Before academic life I was an economic adviser to Her Majesty's Treasury's External Division and editor of the National Institute Review. From 1976 to 1997, I was the Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at Liverpool University where I founded and directed the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics; this built the ‘Liverpool Model’ of the UK, which was influential in forecasting and policy analysis during the 1980s. I was a member of Monopolies and Mergers Commission 1990-96; and one of the H M Treasury's Panel of Forecasters ('6 Wise Men') January 1993-December 1996. I was honoured with a C.B.E. for services to economics in 1996. My economic interests include monetary, trade, labour market and macro economics and modelling. Recent books include: Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship, (with S. Gupta, V. Mahambare, V. Le and Y. Xu) Edward Elgar, second edition, (December 2015); and (with David Meeanagh) 'After Brexit, what next? Trade, regulation and economic growth.' Edward Elgar, December 2020.

2015

Minford, P.et al. 2015. Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship (2nd edition). United Kingdom: Edward Elgar. (10.4337/9781785360336)
Minford, A. P. L., Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2015. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Italian Economic Journal 1(3), pp. 333-351. (10.1007/s40797-015-0020-9)
Minford, P. and Srinivasan, N. 2015. Can the learnability criterion ensure determinacy in New Keynesian Models?. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance 4(1), pp. 43-61. (10.1177/2277978715574615)
Minford, A. P. L., Ou, Z. and Wickens, M. 2015. Revisiting the Great Moderation: policy or luck?. Open Economies Review 26(2), pp. 197-223. (10.1007/s11079-014-9319-7)
Li, D., Minford, A. P. L. and Zhou, P. 2015. A DSGE model of China. Applied Economics 47(59), pp. 6438-6460. (10.1080/00036846.2015.1071477)

2014

Liu, C. and Minford, A. P. L. 2014. Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy. Economic Modelling 43, pp. 407-415. (10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.013)
Minford, A. P. L., Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2014. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Working paper. Cardiff: Cardiff University.
Liu, C. and Minford, P. 2014. How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 41, pp. 119-134. (10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.017)
Le, V. P. M.et al. 2014. Banking and the macroeconomy in China: A banking crisis deferred?. Open Economies Review 25(1), pp. 123-161. (10.1007/s11079-013-9301-9)

2013

Minford, A. P. L. 2013. The financial sector, the banks and the British economy - markets, money and mistaken regulation. In: Lawlor, S. ed. The Financial Sector and the UK Economy: The Danger of Over-Regulation. Politeia Series Vol. 86. London: Politeia, pp. 14-23.
Minford, A. P. L. and Ou, Z. 2013. Taylor rule or optimal timeless policy? reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982. Economic Modelling 32, pp. 113-123. (0.1016/j.econmod.2013.01.029)
Le, V. P. M.et al. 2013. What causes banking crises? an empirical investigation for the world economy. Open Economies Review 24(4), pp. 581-611. (10.1007/s11079-013-9274-8)

2012

Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. P. L. 2012. Non Stationary Shocks, Crises and Policy. Rivista Italiana degli Economisti 17(2), pp. 191-224. (10.1427/37494)

2011

Le, V. P. M.et al. 2011. How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35(12), pp. 2078-2104. (10.1016/j.jedc.2011.08.009)
Minford, A. P. L. 2011. Taylor, Lance: Maynard's revenge. The collapse of free market macroeconomics - 400 pp, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., London, 2011, Hardback, £ 29.95 [Book Review]. Journal of Economics 103(3), pp. 289-291. (10.1007/s00712-011-0216-x)
Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models. Economics Letters 112(3), pp. 247-249. (10.1016/j.econlet.2011.05.014)
Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A role for money after all?. International Finance 14(2), pp. 211-229.
Le, V. P. M., Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2011. Measuring the extent and costs of EU protectionism. In: Jovanovic, M. N. ed. International handbook on the economics of integration: factor mobility, agriculture, environment and quantitative studies., Vol. 3. Elgar Original Reference Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, pp. 316-342.

2010

Meenagh, D.et al. 2010. Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?. Journal of International Money and Finance 29(6), pp. 1131-1150. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.006)
Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. CESifo Economic Studies 56(4), pp. 554-574. (10.1093/cesifo/ifq016)
Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis : a rational interpretation. Political Studies Review 8(1), pp. 40-54. (10.1111/j.1478-9302.2009.00205.x)
Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis - were markets working?. Irish Studies in International Affairs 21(1), pp. 29-41. (10.3318/ISIA.2010.21.29)
Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2010. Vicious and virtuous circles - the political economy of unemployment. South African Journal of Economics 78(1), pp. 1-22. (10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01235.x)
Le, V. P. M., Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2010. The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?. Economic Modelling 27(6), pp. 1417-1428. (10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.016)
Minford, A. P. L., Le, M. and Nowell, E. 2010. Measuring the economic costs and benefits of EU membership. In: Baimbridge, M., Whyman, P. B. and Burkitt, B. eds. Britain in a Global World : Options for a New Beginning. Exeter: Imprint Academic, pp. 65-76.

2009

Meenagh, D.et al. 2009. Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?. Economic Modelling 26(5), pp. 978-992. (10.1016/j.econmod.2009.03.004)
Minford, A. P. L. 2009. Monetary policy and the credit crunch. Economic Affairs 29(1), pp. 89-91. (10.1111/j.1468-0270.2009.01876.x)
Meenagh, D., Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2009. Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference. Open Economies Review 20(4), pp. 435-471. (10.1007/s11079-009-9107-y)
Le, V. P. M.et al. 2009. Two orthogonal continents? Testing a two-country DSGE model of the US and the EU using indirect inference. Open Economies Review 21(1), pp. 23-44. (10.1007/s11079-009-9141-9)
Vo Phuong, M. L., Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2009. European economic policy: protectionism as an elite strategy. In: Gamble, A. and Lane, D. eds. The European Union and World Politics: Consensus and Division. Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 217-234.

2008

Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2008. Are central bank preferences asymmetric? A comment. Economic Notes 37(1), pp. 119-126. (10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00191.x)
Lungu, L., Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution. Economic Modelling 25(2), pp. 255-273. (10.1016/j.econmod.2007.06.001)
Minford, A. P. L., Theodoridis, K. and Meenagh, D. 2008. Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference. Open Economies Review 20(2), pp. 265-291. (10.1007/s11079-008-9085-5)
Matthews, K. G. P., Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2008. Vicious and virtuous circles - The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA. European Journal of Political Economy 24(3), pp. 605-614. (10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.04.005)
Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Why the United Kingdom should not join the Eurozone. International Finance 11(3), pp. 283-295. (10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.01225.x)
Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Dealing with a capitalist paroxysm. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Evaluating monetary policy during the credit crunch. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(4), pp. 21-23.
Minford, A. P. L. and Le, V. 2008. Inflation and the attitudes of Central Banks in emerging markets countries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29, pp. 23-27.
Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Oil price boom compound credit crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(2), pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Panic and US rate cuts. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(1), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2008. The financial crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(4), pp. 3-6.

2007

Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Is the US heading for a slowdown or even a recession? [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter(3)
Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Opinion wavering between resurgent inflation and imminent recession [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter(3)
Meenagh, D., Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. A. 2007. Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes-a new test of market efficiency. Economics Letters 94(2), pp. 235-239. (10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.036)
Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2007. On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets. Open Economies Review 18(1), pp. 119-125. (10.1007/s11079-007-9002-3)

2006

Lungu, L. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Explaining the equity risk premium. The Manchester School 74(6), pp. 670-700. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00522.x)
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Measuring the Economic Costs and Benefits of the EU. Open Economies Review 17(4-5), pp. 509-524. (10.1007/s11079-006-0362-x)
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises as oil prices fall. Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2006. Opportunistic monetary policy: An alternative rationalization. Journal of Economics and Business 58(5-6), pp. 366-372. (10.1016/j.jeconbus.2006.06.006)
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation, unemployment and the pound. In: Roy, S. and Clarke, J. eds. Margaret Thatcher's Revolution: How it Happened and What it Mean (revised ed.). London: Continuum, pp. 50-66.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Will housing bubble collapse?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Delphic oracle or rule-book transparency?. Liverpool Investment Letter 27(1), pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation jitters wreck the markets in bonds and equities. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Commodity turbulence and inflation. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(2), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Oil and other commodity turbulence. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?. National Institute Economic Review 196(1), pp. 92-106. (10.1177/0027950106067050)
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The Budget. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey – again. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(1), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Optimal monetary policy with endogenous contracts: is there a case for price-level targeting and money supply control?. In: Matthews, K. G. P. and Booth, P. M. eds. Issues in Monetary Policy: The Relationship Between Money and the Financial Markets. Chichester: Wiley, pp. 63-80.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Wobbles in the equity markets. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. An agenda for tax reform. London: Centre for Policy Studies.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Competitiveness in a globalised world: a commentary. Journal of International Business Studies 37(2), pp. 176-178. (10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400191)
Le, V. P. M. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Joining the European Monetary Union - Comparing First and Second Generation Open Economy Models. Open Economies Review 17(3), pp. 281-296. (10.1007/s11079-006-9050-0)
Minford, A. P. L., Meenagh, D. and Wong, J. 2006. Testing a simple structural model of endogenous growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(3), pp. 19-26.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Let market forces work. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4(1), pp. 3-11.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Plenty of opportunities available. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4(2), pp. 3-11.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Hammered by foot and mouth. Liverpool Investment Letter 4, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(3), pp. 3-6.

2005

Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The peculiar matter of the crisis that fails to arrive. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Inflation scares. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. A world awash with money. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's economy loses momentum. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's growth is under threat. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L., Mahambare, V. and Nowell, E. 2005. Should Britain leave the EU?: an economic analysis of a troubled relationship. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. World business cycle on track. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Mr Brown and his fiscal promises. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The dollar equilibrium. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. and Webb, B. D. 2005. Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML - some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits. Economic Modelling 22(1), pp. 187-205. (10.1016/j.econmod.2004.06.002)
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Britain's relationship with the European Union. In: Harris, P. and Booth, P. eds. Towards a Liberal Utopia?. London: Institute of Economic Affairs, pp. 119-127.
Minford, A. P. L., Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2005. The observational equivalence of the Taylor Rule and Taylor-type rules. In: Pelzer, L. Z. ed. Trends in Macroeconomic Research. New York: Nova Science Publisher, pp. 1-14.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2005. It's not all roses on Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 3(2), pp. 3-11.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Recent monetary experience and its new implications. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26(4), pp. 26-28.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Whither the MPC?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26(1), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Agenda for a reforming government. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26(3), pp. 19-24.

2004

Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar conundrum. Liverpool Investment Letter 25(4), pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Middle period recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter 11, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Oil prices and inflation. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Reactions to the diving dollar. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The enigma of Japan. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Gordon Brown and the UK economy. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L., Meenagh, D. and Webb, B. D. 2004. Britain and EMU: Assessing the costs in macroeconomic variability. The World Economy 27(3), pp. 301-358. (10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00602.x)
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Is the dollar about to turn?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. ed. 2004. Money matters: essays in honour of Alan Walters. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Britain, the Euro and the five tests. Cato Journal 24(1-2), pp. 75-87.
Mayer, T. and Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Monetarism: A retrospective. World Economics 5(2), pp. 147-185.
Mahambre, V., Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2004. Evaluating European trading agreements. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(2), pp. 16-20.
Minford, A. P. L., Nowell, E. and Mahambre, V. 2004. Introduction, summary and conclusions. Why the UK should renegotiate or leave the EU. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(3), pp. 24-32.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar and the world economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(4), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar turns. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(1), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The return of inflation – no. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(2), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The World Economy – worried about world growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(3), pp. 3-6.

2003

Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2003. Optimal monetary policy: is price-level targeting the next step?. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 50(5), pp. 650-667. (10.1111/j.0036-9292.2003.05005005.x)
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Is the UK housing market bubble collapsing?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Steady as she goes but the European disease is serious. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L., Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2003. How different are money supply rules from Taylor rules?. Indian Economic Review 38(2), pp. 157-166.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. They come in threes. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. A new dawn for Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect, pp. 3-10.
Minford, A. P. L., Nowell, E. and Webb, B. D. 2003. Nominal Contracting and Monetary Targets - Drifting into Indexation. The Economic Journal 113(484), pp. 65-100. (10.1111/1468-0297.00085)
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post mortem – yes, The US did recover!. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Supply-side economics. In: Snowdon, B. and Vane, H. R. eds. An Encyclopedia of Macroeconomics. Elgar Original Reference Chichester: Edward Elgar, pp. 679-689.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. Focus, distinctive competence and cost leadership can spell success. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2(1), pp. 3-10.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Politics and the future of the UK economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(4), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(2), pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The economic consequences of EU membership: a stock-taking. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(3), pp. 17-21.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The public sector and its travails. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(1), pp. 23-26.
Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(3), pp. 3-6.

2002

Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery in now plainly in view. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Gloom prevails. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. and David, P. 2002. Advanced macroeconomics - a primer. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Endlessly taking the US pulse. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The Global outlook - still adding up to recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The United States - as the Bears close in. Current Economics, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - are the bears closing in?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L., Perugini, F. and Srinvasan, N. 2002. Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?. Economics Letters 76(1), pp. 145-150. (10.1016/S0165-1765(02)00034-4)
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The end of new Labour and the Conservative opportunity. Forward May, pp. 4-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Tactics in recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-7.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Recovery proceeding. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-7.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Should Britain join the Euro? The Chancellor’s five tests examined. Discussion Paper. London: Institute of Economic Affairs.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Supply-side worries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23(3), pp. 18-20.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The economy after the budget - still strong. Market Monitor, pp. III-IV.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23(1), pp. 3-9.
Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - Are the Bears closing in?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23(2), pp. 3-9.

2001

Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic aside, the world economy is holding up. Liverpool Investment Letter 8, pp. 3-7.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic USA. Liverpool Investment Letter 1, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Entrepreneurs wanted: Merseyside business prospect. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 15(2), pp. 3-8.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a world recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter 2, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a World Recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22(1), pp. 3-8.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Careless talk of Global Slump. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22(4), pp. 3-7.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Grounds for optimism. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 16(1), pp. 3-8.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. How serious is the present situation in Japan?. Liverpool Investment Letter 3, pp. 3-5.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Inflation worries again. Liverpool Investment Letter 6, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Is Wim so Dim? Why the US is in no real trouble and why Europe needs cooling off. Liverpool Investment Letter 5, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Living through the aftermath of September 11. Liverpool Investment Letter 11, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Merseyside needs to maintain momentum. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2(2), pp. 3-10.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Smoothing out manufacturing excesses. Liverpool Investment Letter 9, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Liverpool Investment Letter 10, pp. 3-6.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22(3), pp. 3-8.
Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. The UK and with it Cheshire and North Wales are on a good wicket but will Labour's re-regulation ruin it?. North Wales and Cheshire Business Prospect 7(1), pp. 3-10.
Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The world economy muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter 7, pp. 3-5.

2000

Minford, A. P. L. 2000. A story of monetary mismanagement. In: Thorpe, R. and Little, S. eds. Global Change: The Impact of Asia in the 21st Century. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 26-35.
Minford, P. and Stoney, P. 2000. North Wales is thriving in a service-led economy. Welsh Economic Review 12(1), pp. 20-23. (10.18573/wer.148)

1996

Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1996. British inflation and unemployment in the 1970s: a model-based decomposition. Applied Economics 28(1), pp. 103-115. (10.1080/00036849600000013)

1994

Matthews, K. G. P., Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. Quarterly liverpool model with current partial information: An exercise in forecasting. Journal of Forecasting 13(6), pp. 507-518. (10.1002/for.3980130603)
Matthews, K. G. P., Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. An algorithm for the solution of non-linear forward rational expectations models with current partial information. Economic Modelling 11(3), pp. 351-358. (10.1016/0264-9993(94)90010-8)

1984

Minford, A. P. L.et al. 1984. The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom. Economic Modelling 1(1), pp. 24-62. (10.1016/0264-9993(84)90010-5)

1980

Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1980. Private sector expenditure and financial asset accumulation in the U.K.. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 12(4), pp. 644-653.
Minford, A. P. L., Brech, M. and Matthews, K. G. P. 1980. A rational expectations model of the U.K. under floating exchange rates. European Economic Review 14(2), pp. 189-219. (10.1016/0014-2921(80)90018-5)

1979

Minford, A. P. L., Matthews, K. G. P. and Marwaha, S. 1979. Terminal conditions as a means of ensuring unique solutions for rational expectations models with forward expectations. Economics Letters 4(2), pp. 117-120. (10.1016/0165-1765(79)90219-2)

I teach postgraduate students macroeconomics. My course for MSc students in International economics, Banking and Finance and in Financial Economics reviews different modern approaches to understanding the economy’s behaviour and analysing the role of monetary and fiscal policy. The main textbook for the course is P. Minford and D. Peel - Advanced Macroeconomics: A Primer, Edward Elgar, second edition, 2019.

My course for first year PHD students (Advanced Macroeconomics- An Introduction) covers two semesters in 40 hours of lectures. It introduces students to the main elements of traditional macroeconomics and then goes on to representative agent models and to analysis of policy with them. The textbook used, which the lectures follow closely, is P. Minford and D. Peel ‘Advanced macroeconomics- a primer’ Edward Elgar, 2019, second edition.

PhD supervision research interests

Macroeconomic modelling and forecasting
Macroeconomic policy

My recent publications can be seen at https://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pmi137.htm

Here are some of my recent papers:

News and why it is not shocking: The role of micro-foundations Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2020, 66, (C)

A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — Making bricks with little straw Energy Economics, 2019, 81, (C), 503-518

Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings Open Economies Review, 2019, 30, (3), 593-620

Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2019, 81, (1), 178-194

The effects of Brexit on the UK economy The World Economy, 2019, 42, (1), 57-67 View citations (6) See also Working Paper (2019)

I am currently supervising 12 PhD students who are in the process of preparing their research and theses.

Five of my students have recently submitted or are about to submit their PhD theses: Emmanual Azom, Aigerim Rysbayeva, Juyi Lyu, Zhiqi Zhao. and Jonathan Lloyd.

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