Professor Patrick Minford

2020

• Le, V. P. M., Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2020. News and why it is not shocking: the role of micro-foundations. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 66, article number: 101199. (10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101199)
• Le, V. P. M.et al. 2020. China’s market economy, shadow banking and the frequency of growth slowdown. Manchester School (10.1111/manc.12318)
• Minford, P., Wang, Y. and Zhou, P. 2020. Resolving the public-sector wage premium puzzle by indirect inference. Applied Economics 52(7), pp. 726-741. (10.1080/00036846.2019.1648748)
• Gai, Y., Minford, P. and Ou, Z. 2020. Is housing collateral important to the business cycle? Evidence from China. Journal of International Money and Finance
• Minford, A., Ou, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2020. Can a small New Keynesian model of the world economy with risk-pooling match the facts?. International Journal of Finance and Economics
• Yang, X., Minford, P. and Meenagh, D. 2020. Inequality and economic growth in the UK. Open Economies Review

2019

• Meenagh, D.et al. 2019. Testing DSGE models by indirect inference: a survey of recent findings. Open Economies Review 30(3), pp. 593-620. (10.1007/s11079-019-09526-w)
• Le, V. P. M., Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2019. A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — making bricks with little straw. Energy Economics 81, pp. 503-518. (10.1016/j.eneco.2019.04.011)
• Dong, X., Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2019. How important are the international financial market imperfections for the foreign exchange rate dynamics: A study of the sterling exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance 94, pp. 62-80. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.02.012)
• Minford, P., Wickens, M. and Xu, Y. 2019. Testing part of a DSGE model by indirect inference. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 81(1), pp. 178-194. (10.1111/obes.12253)
• Minford, P. 2019. The effects of Brexit on the UK economy. World Economy 42(1), pp. 57-67. (10.1111/twec.12771)

2018

• Le, V. P. M., Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2018. Financial stability: to regulate or not? A public choice inquiry. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 57, pp. 127-140. (10.1016/j.intfin.2018.07.004)
• Minford, A. and Xu, Y. 2018. Classical or gravity? which trade model best matches the UK facts?. Open Economies Review 29(3), pp. 579-611. (10.1007/s11079-017-9470-z)
• Aminu, N., Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2018. The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data. Energy Economics 71, pp. 14-34. (10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.030)

2017

• Le, V. P. M.et al. 2017. A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 76, pp. 202-210. (10.1016/j.jedc.2017.01.009)
• Le, V., Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. 2017. Tracing the causes of the banking crisis. Applied Economics (10.1080/00036846.2017.1282145)
• Chen, X.et al. 2017. Who provides the capital for Chinese growth: the public or the private sector?. Applied Economics 49(23), pp. 2238-2252. (10.1080/00036846.2016.1234704)

2016

• Fan, J., Minford, A. P. L. and Ou, Z. 2016. The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation. Economic Modelling 58, pp. 203-218. (10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.027)
• Le, V. P. M., Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2016. Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of quantitative easing. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 44, pp. 85-102. (10.1016/j.intfin.2016.04.011)
• Patrick, M. 2016. Testing macro models for policy use - An insurrection in applied modelling. The Manchester School 84(S1), pp. 42-55. (10.1111/manc.12164)
• Minford, A., Wickens, M. and Xu, Y. 2016. Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models. Economics Letters 145, pp. 157-161. (10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.016)
• Hatcher, M. and Minford, A. P. L. 2016. Stabilisation policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey. Journal of Economic Surveys 30(2), pp. 327-355. (10.1111/joes.12096)
• Le, V. P. M.et al. 2016. Testing macro models by indirect inference: a survey for users. Open Economies Review 27(1), pp. 1-38. (10.1007/s11079-015-9377-5)

2015

• Minford, P.et al. 2015. Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship (2nd edition). United Kingdom: Edward Elgar. (10.4337/9781785360336)
• Minford, A. P. L., Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2015. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Italian Economic Journal 1(3), pp. 333-351. (10.1007/s40797-015-0020-9)
• Minford, P. and Srinivasan, N. 2015. Can the learnability criterion ensure determinacy in New Keynesian Models?. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance 4(1), pp. 43-61. (10.1177/2277978715574615)
• Minford, A. P. L., Ou, Z. and Wickens, M. 2015. Revisiting the Great Moderation: policy or luck?. Open Economies Review 26(2), pp. 197-223. (10.1007/s11079-014-9319-7)
• Li, D., Minford, A. P. L. and Zhou, P. 2015. A DSGE model of China. Applied Economics 47(59), pp. 6438-6460. (10.1080/00036846.2015.1071477)

2014

• Liu, C. and Minford, A. P. L. 2014. Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy. Economic Modelling 43, pp. 407-415. (10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.013)
• Minford, A. P. L., Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2014. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Working paper. Cardiff: Cardiff University.
• Liu, C. and Minford, P. 2014. How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 41, pp. 119-134. (10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.017)
• Le, V. P. M.et al. 2014. Banking and the macroeconomy in China: A banking crisis deferred?. Open Economies Review 25(1), pp. 123-161. (10.1007/s11079-013-9301-9)

2013

• Minford, A. P. L. 2013. The financial sector, the banks and the British economy - markets, money and mistaken regulation. In: Lawlor, S. ed. The Financial Sector and the UK Economy: The Danger of Over-Regulation. Politeia Series Vol. 86. London: Politeia, pp. 14-23.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Ou, Z. 2013. Taylor rule or optimal timeless policy? reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982. Economic Modelling 32, pp. 113-123. (0.1016/j.econmod.2013.01.029)
• Le, V. P. M.et al. 2013. What causes banking crises? an empirical investigation for the world economy. Open Economies Review 24(4), pp. 581-611. (10.1007/s11079-013-9274-8)

2012

• Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. P. L. 2012. Non Stationary Shocks, Crises and Policy. Rivista Italiana degli Economisti 17(2), pp. 191-224. (10.1427/37494)

2011

• Le, V. P. M.et al. 2011. How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35(12), pp. 2078-2104. (10.1016/j.jedc.2011.08.009)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2011. Taylor, Lance: Maynard's revenge. The collapse of free market macroeconomics - 400 pp, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., London, 2011, Hardback, £ 29.95 [Book Review]. Journal of Economics 103(3), pp. 289-291. (10.1007/s00712-011-0216-x)
• Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models. Economics Letters 112(3), pp. 247-249. (10.1016/j.econlet.2011.05.014)
• Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A role for money after all?. International Finance 14(2), pp. 211-229.
• Le, V. P. M., Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2011. Measuring the extent and costs of EU protectionism. In: Jovanovic, M. N. ed. International handbook on the economics of integration: factor mobility, agriculture, environment and quantitative studies., Vol. 3. Elgar Original Reference Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, pp. 316-342.

2010

• Meenagh, D.et al. 2010. Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?. Journal of International Money and Finance 29(6), pp. 1131-1150. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.006)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. CESifo Economic Studies 56(4), pp. 554-574. (10.1093/cesifo/ifq016)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis : a rational interpretation. Political Studies Review 8(1), pp. 40-54. (10.1111/j.1478-9302.2009.00205.x)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis - were markets working?. Irish Studies in International Affairs 21(1), pp. 29-41. (10.3318/ISIA.2010.21.29)
• Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2010. Vicious and virtuous circles - the political economy of unemployment. South African Journal of Economics 78(1), pp. 1-22. (10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01235.x)
• Le, V. P. M., Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2010. The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?. Economic Modelling 27(6), pp. 1417-1428. (10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.016)
• Minford, A. P. L., Le, M. and Nowell, E. 2010. Measuring the economic costs and benefits of EU membership. In: Baimbridge, M., Whyman, P. B. and Burkitt, B. eds. Britain in a Global World : Options for a New Beginning. Exeter: Imprint Academic, pp. 65-76.

2009

• Meenagh, D.et al. 2009. Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?. Economic Modelling 26(5), pp. 978-992. (10.1016/j.econmod.2009.03.004)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2009. Monetary policy and the credit crunch. Economic Affairs 29(1), pp. 89-91. (10.1111/j.1468-0270.2009.01876.x)
• Meenagh, D., Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2009. Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference. Open Economies Review 20(4), pp. 435-471. (10.1007/s11079-009-9107-y)
• Le, V. P. M.et al. 2009. Two orthogonal continents? Testing a two-country DSGE model of the US and the EU using indirect inference. Open Economies Review 21(1), pp. 23-44. (10.1007/s11079-009-9141-9)
• Vo Phuong, M. L., Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2009. European economic policy: protectionism as an elite strategy. In: Gamble, A. and Lane, D. eds. The European Union and World Politics: Consensus and Division. Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 217-234.

2008

• Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2008. Are central bank preferences asymmetric? A comment. Economic Notes 37(1), pp. 119-126. (10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00191.x)
• Lungu, L., Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution. Economic Modelling 25(2), pp. 255-273. (10.1016/j.econmod.2007.06.001)
• Minford, A. P. L., Theodoridis, K. and Meenagh, D. 2008. Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference. Open Economies Review 20(2), pp. 265-291. (10.1007/s11079-008-9085-5)
• Matthews, K. G. P., Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2008. Vicious and virtuous circles - The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA. European Journal of Political Economy 24(3), pp. 605-614. (10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.04.005)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Why the United Kingdom should not join the Eurozone. International Finance 11(3), pp. 283-295. (10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.01225.x)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Dealing with a capitalist paroxysm. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Evaluating monetary policy during the credit crunch. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(4), pp. 21-23.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Le, V. 2008. Inflation and the attitudes of Central Banks in emerging markets countries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29, pp. 23-27.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Oil price boom compound credit crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(2), pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Panic and US rate cuts. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(1), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2008. The financial crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29(4), pp. 3-6.

2007

• Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Is the US heading for a slowdown or even a recession? [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter(3)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Opinion wavering between resurgent inflation and imminent recession [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter(3)
• Meenagh, D., Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. A. 2007. Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes-a new test of market efficiency. Economics Letters 94(2), pp. 235-239. (10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.036)
• Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2007. On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets. Open Economies Review 18(1), pp. 119-125. (10.1007/s11079-007-9002-3)

2006

• Lungu, L. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Explaining the equity risk premium. The Manchester School 74(6), pp. 670-700. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00522.x)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Measuring the Economic Costs and Benefits of the EU. Open Economies Review 17(4-5), pp. 509-524. (10.1007/s11079-006-0362-x)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises as oil prices fall. Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2006. Opportunistic monetary policy: An alternative rationalization. Journal of Economics and Business 58(5-6), pp. 366-372. (10.1016/j.jeconbus.2006.06.006)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation, unemployment and the pound. In: Roy, S. and Clarke, J. eds. Margaret Thatcher's Revolution: How it Happened and What it Mean (revised ed.). London: Continuum, pp. 50-66.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Will housing bubble collapse?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Delphic oracle or rule-book transparency?. Liverpool Investment Letter 27(1), pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation jitters wreck the markets in bonds and equities. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Commodity turbulence and inflation. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(2), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Oil and other commodity turbulence. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?. National Institute Economic Review 196(1), pp. 92-106. (10.1177/0027950106067050)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The Budget. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey – again. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(1), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Optimal monetary policy with endogenous contracts: is there a case for price-level targeting and money supply control?. In: Matthews, K. G. P. and Booth, P. M. eds. Issues in Monetary Policy: The Relationship Between Money and the Financial Markets. Chichester: Wiley, pp. 63-80.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Wobbles in the equity markets. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. An agenda for tax reform. London: Centre for Policy Studies.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Competitiveness in a globalised world: a commentary. Journal of International Business Studies 37(2), pp. 176-178. (10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400191)
• Le, V. P. M. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Joining the European Monetary Union - Comparing First and Second Generation Open Economy Models. Open Economies Review 17(3), pp. 281-296. (10.1007/s11079-006-9050-0)
• Minford, A. P. L., Meenagh, D. and Wong, J. 2006. Testing a simple structural model of endogenous growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(3), pp. 19-26.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Let market forces work. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4(1), pp. 3-11.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Plenty of opportunities available. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4(2), pp. 3-11.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Hammered by foot and mouth. Liverpool Investment Letter 4, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27(3), pp. 3-6.

2005

• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The peculiar matter of the crisis that fails to arrive. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Inflation scares. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. A world awash with money. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's economy loses momentum. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's growth is under threat. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L., Mahambare, V. and Nowell, E. 2005. Should Britain leave the EU?: an economic analysis of a troubled relationship. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. World business cycle on track. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Mr Brown and his fiscal promises. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The dollar equilibrium. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Webb, B. D. 2005. Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML - some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits. Economic Modelling 22(1), pp. 187-205. (10.1016/j.econmod.2004.06.002)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Britain's relationship with the European Union. In: Harris, P. and Booth, P. eds. Towards a Liberal Utopia?. London: Institute of Economic Affairs, pp. 119-127.
• Minford, A. P. L., Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2005. The observational equivalence of the Taylor Rule and Taylor-type rules. In: Pelzer, L. Z. ed. Trends in Macroeconomic Research. New York: Nova Science Publisher, pp. 1-14.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2005. It's not all roses on Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 3(2), pp. 3-11.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Recent monetary experience and its new implications. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26(4), pp. 26-28.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Whither the MPC?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26(1), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Agenda for a reforming government. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26(3), pp. 19-24.

2004

• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar conundrum. Liverpool Investment Letter 25(4), pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Middle period recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter 11, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Oil prices and inflation. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Reactions to the diving dollar. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The enigma of Japan. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Gordon Brown and the UK economy. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L., Meenagh, D. and Webb, B. D. 2004. Britain and EMU: Assessing the costs in macroeconomic variability. The World Economy 27(3), pp. 301-358. (10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00602.x)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Is the dollar about to turn?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. ed. 2004. Money matters: essays in honour of Alan Walters. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Britain, the Euro and the five tests. Cato Journal 24(1-2), pp. 75-87.
• Mayer, T. and Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Monetarism: A retrospective. World Economics 5(2), pp. 147-185.
• Mahambre, V., Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2004. Evaluating European trading agreements. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(2), pp. 16-20.
• Minford, A. P. L., Nowell, E. and Mahambre, V. 2004. Introduction, summary and conclusions. Why the UK should renegotiate or leave the EU. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(3), pp. 24-32.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar and the world economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(4), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar turns. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(1), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The return of inflation – no. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(2), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The World Economy – worried about world growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25(3), pp. 3-6.

2003

• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2003. Optimal monetary policy: is price-level targeting the next step?. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 50(5), pp. 650-667. (10.1111/j.0036-9292.2003.05005005.x)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Is the UK housing market bubble collapsing?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Steady as she goes but the European disease is serious. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L., Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2003. How different are money supply rules from Taylor rules?. Indian Economic Review 38(2), pp. 157-166.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. They come in threes. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. A new dawn for Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect, pp. 3-10.
• Minford, A. P. L., Nowell, E. and Webb, B. D. 2003. Nominal Contracting and Monetary Targets - Drifting into Indexation. The Economic Journal 113(484), pp. 65-100. (10.1111/1468-0297.00085)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post mortem – yes, The US did recover!. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Supply-side economics. In: Snowdon, B. and Vane, H. R. eds. An Encyclopedia of Macroeconomics. Elgar Original Reference Chichester: Edward Elgar, pp. 679-689.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. Focus, distinctive competence and cost leadership can spell success. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2(1), pp. 3-10.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Politics and the future of the UK economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(4), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(2), pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The economic consequences of EU membership: a stock-taking. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(3), pp. 17-21.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The public sector and its travails. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(1), pp. 23-26.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24(3), pp. 3-6.

2002

• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery in now plainly in view. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Gloom prevails. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. and David, P. 2002. Advanced macroeconomics - a primer. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Endlessly taking the US pulse. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The Global outlook - still adding up to recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The United States - as the Bears close in. Current Economics, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - are the bears closing in?. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L., Perugini, F. and Srinvasan, N. 2002. Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?. Economics Letters 76(1), pp. 145-150. (10.1016/S0165-1765(02)00034-4)
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The end of new Labour and the Conservative opportunity. Forward May, pp. 4-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Tactics in recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-7.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Recovery proceeding. Liverpool Investment Letter, pp. 3-7.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Should Britain join the Euro? The Chancellor’s five tests examined. Discussion Paper. London: Institute of Economic Affairs.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Supply-side worries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23(3), pp. 18-20.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The economy after the budget - still strong. Market Monitor, pp. III-IV.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23(1), pp. 3-9.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - Are the Bears closing in?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23(2), pp. 3-9.

2001

• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic aside, the world economy is holding up. Liverpool Investment Letter 8, pp. 3-7.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic USA. Liverpool Investment Letter 1, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Entrepreneurs wanted: Merseyside business prospect. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 15(2), pp. 3-8.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a world recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter 2, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a World Recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22(1), pp. 3-8.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Careless talk of Global Slump. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22(4), pp. 3-7.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Grounds for optimism. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 16(1), pp. 3-8.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. How serious is the present situation in Japan?. Liverpool Investment Letter 3, pp. 3-5.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Inflation worries again. Liverpool Investment Letter 6, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Is Wim so Dim? Why the US is in no real trouble and why Europe needs cooling off. Liverpool Investment Letter 5, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Living through the aftermath of September 11. Liverpool Investment Letter 11, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Merseyside needs to maintain momentum. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2(2), pp. 3-10.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Smoothing out manufacturing excesses. Liverpool Investment Letter 9, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Liverpool Investment Letter 10, pp. 3-6.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22(3), pp. 3-8.
• Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. The UK and with it Cheshire and North Wales are on a good wicket but will Labour's re-regulation ruin it?. North Wales and Cheshire Business Prospect 7(1), pp. 3-10.
• Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The world economy muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter 7, pp. 3-5.

2000

• Minford, A. P. L. 2000. A story of monetary mismanagement. In: Thorpe, R. and Little, S. eds. Global Change: The Impact of Asia in the 21st Century. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 26-35.
• Minford, P. and Stoney, P. 2000. North Wales is thriving in a service-led economy. Welsh Economic Review 12(1), pp. 20-23. (10.18573/wer.148)

1996

• Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1996. British inflation and unemployment in the 1970s: a model-based decomposition. Applied Economics 28(1), pp. 103-115. (10.1080/00036849600000013)

1994

• Matthews, K. G. P., Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. Quarterly liverpool model with current partial information: An exercise in forecasting. Journal of Forecasting 13(6), pp. 507-518. (10.1002/for.3980130603)
• Matthews, K. G. P., Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. An algorithm for the solution of non-linear forward rational expectations models with current partial information. Economic Modelling 11(3), pp. 351-358. (10.1016/0264-9993(94)90010-8)

1984

• Minford, A. P. L.et al. 1984. The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom. Economic Modelling 1(1), pp. 24-62. (10.1016/0264-9993(84)90010-5)

1980

• Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1980. Private sector expenditure and financial asset accumulation in the U.K.. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 12(4), pp. 644-653.
• Minford, A. P. L., Brech, M. and Matthews, K. G. P. 1980. A rational expectations model of the U.K. under floating exchange rates. European Economic Review 14(2), pp. 189-219. (10.1016/0014-2921(80)90018-5)

1979

• Minford, A. P. L., Matthews, K. G. P. and Marwaha, S. 1979. Terminal conditions as a means of ensuring unique solutions for rational expectations models with forward expectations. Economics Letters 4(2), pp. 117-120. (10.1016/0165-1765(79)90219-2)