Jesus Rodriguez Moreno
I’m a Venezuelan economist. I joined the Wales Governance Centre in October 2019. My research interests are public economics, public finance, labour economics, education, public policy, inequality, institutions and political economy. At the center we conduct empirical research on taxation and public expenditures and prepare economic reports and policy briefings on the Welsh economy.
I received an MSc. in Economics from University of Warwick in 2018 and a Master in Public Policy (MPP) from Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administracion (IESA) in 2012. More recently, I completed an MITx Micromaster Program in Data, Economics, and Development Policy from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) & the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL).
Before joining WGC, I worked as a research assistant for professor Elliott Ash from ETH Zurich, where I participated in several research projects on public finance and the intersection between law and economics.
For more information you can visit my web page: https://jesus-rodriguez.org
Jesús is an economist from the Central University of Venezuela with master's degree in Public Policy from IESA and an MSc. in Economics from the University of Warwick, United Kingdom. He has served the public sector as Director of Economic Studies and Director of Planning and Budget in the local governments of Chacao and Baruta, Caracas, Venezuela.
In the academic sphere, he has been Asisstant Professor of Public Management at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB) and a research assistant at the IESA Public Policy Center where he has written articles for the IESA Debates magazine on the macroeconomic situation in Venezuela. He currently works as a research assistant at the Wales Governance Center, Cardiff University, UK.
Honours and awards
• Chevening Scholarship 2017-2018, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office. 2017
Awarded for academic and professional excellence to be one of the 10 Venezuelans scholars over a turnout of 4,000 applicants to study MSc. in Economics at University of Warwick, United Kingdom.
• Scholarship Georgetown University-Latin American Board. 2016
Selected and awarded a merit-based scholarship to attend Georgetown University’s Innovation and Leadership in Government Program (ILG), held in Washington DC.
• Scholarship CAF-Development Bank of Latin America. 2015
• Scholarship Alcaldía de Chacao- IESA. 2011
“Venezuela at the stage of macroeconomic collapse: A historical and comparative analysis” (with Jose Manuel Puente), Journal America Latina Hoy (2020). University of Salamanca.
This paper conducts a historical and comparative analysis of GDP for 192 countries over the period 1980-2018 using data from the IMF. Results show that Venezuela lost 49.32% of its total GDP in just five years (2014-2018). This negative performance represents the worst macroeconomic performance in magnitude and duration in Venezuela history (1950-2018), the worst in Latin America and the second worst in the world during the period 1980-2018.
- COVID-19 in Wales: the mental health and wellbeing impact Wales Governance Centre publication, Cardiff University (Jul-21). Data & replication file here
This paper intends to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdowns & social restrictions on mental health outcomes using the UKHLS, covering the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period (2009-19) and during-COVID-19 pandemic.
- What are the big economic challenges facing the new Welsh Government? (with Guto Ifan & Cian Siôn) Economics Observatory Website (June-21). Data & replication file in Stata here
This briefing shows an overview of the main economic challenges the Welsh economy will face ahead of the Senedd election and shows the latest labour market outcomes and GDP performance for the countries and regions of the UK.
- Covid-19 and the economic challenges facing the incoming Welsh Government – part 2 On Thinking Wales, Cardiff University Blog (May-21). Data & replication file in Stata here
This blog evaluates the impact of Covid-19 on the Welsh labour market and points out the economic challenges facing the new Welsh Government after the Senedd election.
- Covid-19 and the economic challenges facing the incoming Welsh Government – part 1 On Thinking Wales, Cardiff University Blog (May-21). Data & replication file in Stata here
This blog explores the performance of the Welsh economy in terms of GDP growth rates during the pandemic and explores the medium-term economic outlook for Wales .
- In Charts: Covid-19 and the Welsh labour market (with Cian Siôn) On Thinking Wales, Cardiff University Blog (Nov-20). Data & replication file in R here
This blog analyses the latest data released by ONS to measure the labour market impact of covid-19 in Wales in terms of unemployment, jobs adverts and vacancies.
- How will the Welsh workforce be affected by the firebreak lockdown?, (with Cian Siôn & Guto Ifan) Economics Observatory Website (Oct-20) [pdf] Data & replication file here.
This piece describes which industries, employees and occupations will be most affected by the new lockdown. We estimate that roughly 224,000 employees in Wales work in a sector that will be partially or entirely shut down due to the new firebreak lockdown. This figure represents 16.24% of the Welsh workforce.
- How is Covid-19 affecting the Welsh economy?, (with Guto Ifan) Economics Observatory publication (Oct-20). [pdf] Data & replication file here.
This piece evaluates the impact of covid-19 on the Welsh economy by using business survey & labor market data. It also analyses how has government action mitigated the economic impact of Covid-19 & what the latest mobility trends data suggest for Wales compared to the UK.
- Covid-19 and the Welsh economy: working from home, Wales Governance Centre publication (Aug-20). Data & replication file here
This briefing analyses data from Understanding Society and Labor Force Survey to determine the share of employees who can work from home in Wales pre-pandemic, and the potential of the Welsh economy for homeworking by industry and occupation.
- Covid-19 & the Welsh economy: shutdown sectors & key workers, Wales Governance Centre publication (Jun-20). Data & replication file here. Media coverage: ITV Wales
Using Labor Force Survey data, this briefing investigates the groups and sectors in Wales most significantly affected by the current pandemic, based on a set of economic and demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity, and income levels.
- Implications of the UK General Election 2019 for the Welsh Government Budget (with Guto Ifan & Cian Siôn) Wales Governance Centre publication (2019)
- Venezuela: the world’s worst economy in 2016, (with Jose Manuel Puente) Debates IESA Journal (2016)
- Venezuela in crisis: the economy in 2014 and 2015, (with Jose Manuel Puente) Debates IESA Journal (2015)
“Venezuela: Diagnosis of a Macroeconomic Collapse, 1980-2019” (with Jose Manuel Puente), forthcoming in “Venezuela en la encrucijada”, Konrad Adenauer Foundation (2020)
“Venezuela, la révolution bolivarienne, 20 ans après” (with Jose Manuel Puente) University of Strasbourg, France (2019)
Previous policy reports
“The budgetary policy in Venezuela and its impact on subnational governments“, Direction of Planning and Budget. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Feb-2016)
“The national budget and its impact on public finances of states and municipalities“ Autonomous Service of Tax Administration. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Sep-2014)
“Policy measures to address the economic crisis in Venezuela” Autonomous Service of Tax Administration. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Aug-2014)
“A misguided economic model and their impact on the municipal revenues“, Autonomous Service of Tax Administration. Municipality of Baruta, Venezuela (Jul-2014)