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 Mingzhe Shi

Mingzhe Shi

Research student, Cardiff Business School

Overview

Mingzhe is currently a PhD student at Cardiff Business School. He has also achieved a Master of Science degree in Logistics and Operations Management from Cardiff University. During his master's studies, Mingzhe attended a live project at Cardiff University called "Anticipating special events in ambulance forecasting."


Several tasks were completed during this live project:



  • Create a daily forecast to Health Board level using R.

  • Forecasting expected patient demand, including special events forecasting and a recommendation on what forecasting model to use.


Supervision team


Mingzhe is supervised by Dr. Bahman Rostami-Tabar and Professor Daniel Gartner.


The following are links to their respective websites:


Bahman Rostami-Tabar


Daniel Gartner


Research

Research interests

My research interests are in applying different time-series forecasting methods in healthcare services, optimization and machine learning applied to unscheduled care services.


Thesis

Improving the unscheduled planning in urgent and emergency care: Using predictive modeling to deliver quality care

Research objectives


My study seeks to improve the efficiency of unplanned care by identifying sources of uncertainty, building a precise and reliable forecasting framework appropriate for decision-making, and detecting potential crowding characteristics.


We intend to address numerous issues that unplanned care services may be facing at the moment:



  • To find different factors that may affect demand and service and incorporate these factors into predictive models;

  • To make an accurate prediction of unscheduled care patients flow by using historical time series;

  • To use machine learning techniques to transform transactional data into meaningful inputs into a predictive model;

  • To link predictive modeling to decisions in Emergency department and Ambulance services, in a pilot hospital such as Bridgend Hospital in Wales, which optimizes decision making process.

Supervisors

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Dr Bahman Rostami-Tabar

Reader in Management Science

Photograph of Daniel Gartner

Professor Daniel Gartner

Professor of Operational Research