Dr Caroline Wainwright
(Mae hi'n)
Darlithydd Newid Hinsawdd
Ysgol Gwyddorau'r Ddaear a'r Amgylchedd
- WainwrightC2@caerdydd.ac.uk
- Y Prif Adeilad, Ystafell Room 2.49, Plas y Parc, Caerdydd, CF10 3AT
- Ar gael fel goruchwyliwr ôl-raddedig
Trosolwyg
My research is around climate variability and change over Africa. In particular I'm very interesting in exploring variability and changes in the seasonal cycle of rainfall over Africa, including recent trends, current variability, and future projected changes. I've worked on methodologies for characterising the seasonal cycle of precipitation across Africa and the tropics, and used these methodologies for a range of applications.
Recently, I've also started working more in areas relating to the impacts of climate variability over Africa, particularly working in the areas of renewable ebergy generation and health. I'm currently involved with a project looking at the impact of climate on migration in Madagascar.
I'm very interested in how forecasts and warnings can enhance preparedness across Africa.
For more details on this, please see this interview from my previous role: https://youtu.be/_4JUX49N9V8
Cyhoeddiad
2023
- Talib, J., Taylor, C. M., Harris, B. L. and Wainwright, C. M. 2023. Surface-driven amplification of MJO circulation anomalies across East Africa and its influence on the Turkana jet. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149(754), pp. 1890-1912. (10.1002/qj.4487)
- Hirons, L. et al. 2023. Experiences of co-producing sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana. Weather 78(5), pp. 148-153. (10.1002/wea.4381)
- Palmer, P. I. et al. 2023. Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x)
- Crook, J. et al. 2023. The Leeds Africa Climate Hackathon – experiences of running a hackathon and highlights of results. Weather 78(2), pp. 36-42. (10.1002/wea.4246)
2022
- Gudoshava, M. et al. 2022. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for Eastern Africa short rains. International Journal of Climatology 42(12), pp. 6562-6578. (10.1002/joc.7627)
- Nkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. A., Wainwright, C., Quenum, G. M. L. D., Amankwah, A. and Klutse, N. A. B. 2022. Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP on the representation of onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall in Southern West Africa. Atmosphere 13(7), article number: 999. (10.3390/atmos13070999)
- Wainwright, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2022. Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters 49(12), article number: e2021GL097231. (10.1029/2021GL097231)
2021
- Wainwright, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2021. Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(9), pp. 2339–2357. (10.1175/jhm-d-21-0017.1)
- Senior, C. A. et al. 2021. Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(6), pp. E1206–E1223. (10.1175/bams-d-20-0020.1)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Powell, D. P., Finney, D. L. and Black, E. 2021. Future changes in seasonality in East Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection. Journal of Climate 34(4), pp. 1367-1385. (10.1175/jcli-d-20-0450.1)
- Taylor, J. et al. 2021. Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species. Climatic Change 164(3-4), article number: 41. (10.1007/s10584-021-02971-y)
- Black, E. et al. 2021. Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. Environmental Research Letters 16(1), article number: 14009. (10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3)
- Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E. and Marsham, J. H. 2021. Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather 76(1), pp. 26-31. (10.1002/wea.3824)
2020
- Monerie, P. A., Wainwright, C. M., Sidibe, M. and Akinsanola, A. A. 2020. Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Climate Dynamics 55(5-6), pp. 1385-1401. (10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0)
2019
- Wainwright, C. M., Hirons, L. C., Klingaman, N. P., Allan, R. P., Black, E. and Turner, A. G. 2019. The impact of air–sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics 53(11), pp. 7027-7044. (10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Keane, R. J., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2019. ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2, article number: 34. (10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7)
2018
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2018. Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate 31(23), pp. 9719-9738. (10.1175/jcli-d-18-0102.1)
2017
- Dunning, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2017. Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters 12, pp. 1-11., article number: 114001. (10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e)
2016
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. C. L. and Allan, R. P. 2016. The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121(19), pp. 11405-11424. (10.1002/2016JD025428)
2015
- Kolusu, S. R., Marsham, J. H., Mulcahy, J., Johnson, B., Dunning, C., Bush, M. and Spracklen, D. V. 2015. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15(21), pp. 12251–12266. (10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015)
- Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G. and Brayshaw, D. J. 2015. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters 10(6), article number: 64002. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002)
2014
- Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G. and Chagnon, J. M. 2014. Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters 41(8), pp. 2979-2987. (10.1002/2014GL059282)
Erthyglau
- Talib, J., Taylor, C. M., Harris, B. L. and Wainwright, C. M. 2023. Surface-driven amplification of MJO circulation anomalies across East Africa and its influence on the Turkana jet. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149(754), pp. 1890-1912. (10.1002/qj.4487)
- Hirons, L. et al. 2023. Experiences of co-producing sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana. Weather 78(5), pp. 148-153. (10.1002/wea.4381)
- Palmer, P. I. et al. 2023. Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x)
- Crook, J. et al. 2023. The Leeds Africa Climate Hackathon – experiences of running a hackathon and highlights of results. Weather 78(2), pp. 36-42. (10.1002/wea.4246)
- Gudoshava, M. et al. 2022. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for Eastern Africa short rains. International Journal of Climatology 42(12), pp. 6562-6578. (10.1002/joc.7627)
- Nkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. A., Wainwright, C., Quenum, G. M. L. D., Amankwah, A. and Klutse, N. A. B. 2022. Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP on the representation of onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall in Southern West Africa. Atmosphere 13(7), article number: 999. (10.3390/atmos13070999)
- Wainwright, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2022. Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters 49(12), article number: e2021GL097231. (10.1029/2021GL097231)
- Wainwright, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2021. Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(9), pp. 2339–2357. (10.1175/jhm-d-21-0017.1)
- Senior, C. A. et al. 2021. Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(6), pp. E1206–E1223. (10.1175/bams-d-20-0020.1)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Powell, D. P., Finney, D. L. and Black, E. 2021. Future changes in seasonality in East Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection. Journal of Climate 34(4), pp. 1367-1385. (10.1175/jcli-d-20-0450.1)
- Taylor, J. et al. 2021. Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species. Climatic Change 164(3-4), article number: 41. (10.1007/s10584-021-02971-y)
- Black, E. et al. 2021. Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. Environmental Research Letters 16(1), article number: 14009. (10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3)
- Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E. and Marsham, J. H. 2021. Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather 76(1), pp. 26-31. (10.1002/wea.3824)
- Monerie, P. A., Wainwright, C. M., Sidibe, M. and Akinsanola, A. A. 2020. Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Climate Dynamics 55(5-6), pp. 1385-1401. (10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0)
- Wainwright, C. M., Hirons, L. C., Klingaman, N. P., Allan, R. P., Black, E. and Turner, A. G. 2019. The impact of air–sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics 53(11), pp. 7027-7044. (10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Keane, R. J., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2019. ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2, article number: 34. (10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7)
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2018. Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate 31(23), pp. 9719-9738. (10.1175/jcli-d-18-0102.1)
- Dunning, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2017. Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters 12, pp. 1-11., article number: 114001. (10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e)
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. C. L. and Allan, R. P. 2016. The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121(19), pp. 11405-11424. (10.1002/2016JD025428)
- Kolusu, S. R., Marsham, J. H., Mulcahy, J., Johnson, B., Dunning, C., Bush, M. and Spracklen, D. V. 2015. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15(21), pp. 12251–12266. (10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015)
- Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G. and Brayshaw, D. J. 2015. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters 10(6), article number: 64002. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002)
- Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G. and Chagnon, J. M. 2014. Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters 41(8), pp. 2979-2987. (10.1002/2014GL059282)
Ymchwil
Mae fy ymchwil yn ymwneud ag amrywioldeb hinsawdd a newid dros Affrica. Yn benodol, rwy'n ddiddorol iawn wrth archwilio amrywioldeb a newidiadau yng nghylch tymhorol glawiad dros Affrica, gan gynnwys tueddiadau diweddar, amrywioldeb cyfredol, a newidiadau a ragwelir yn y dyfodol. Rwyf wedi gweithio ar fethodolegau i nodweddu'r cylch dyodiad tymhorol ar draws Affrica a'r trofannau, ac wedi defnyddio'r methodolegau hyn ar gyfer ystod o gymwysiadau.
Yn ystod fy PhD datblygais fethodoleg newydd ar gyfer dadansoddi tymhorau gwlyb Affricanaidd trwy nodweddu'r drefn lawiad a nodi dyddiadau cychwyn a rhoi'r gorau i'r tymor gwlyb (Dunning et al., 2016). Gallwch ddarllen mwy am y fethodoleg yn yr erthygl blog hon.
Defnyddiwyd hyn i asesu amrywioldeb diweddar a rhagamcanion yn y dyfodol o newid tymhorol ledled Affrica (Dunning et al., 2018) ac i asesu cynrychiolaeth model hinsawdd o'r cylch tymhorol. Mae'r erthygl hon yn trafod y gwaith ar amcanestyniadau yn y dyfodol. Perfformiwyd efelychiadau delfrydol hefyd i archwilio gwallau enghreifftiol yng nghynrychiolaeth y cylch tymhorol dros dde orllewin Affrica. Mae'r cod i gyfrifo dyddiadau cychwyn a rhoi'r gorau ar gael ar Github.
Yna aeth fy ngwaith ymlaen yn naturiol i ymchwil sy'n cysylltu'r dirywiad diweddar yn y glaw hir Dwyrain Affrica i amseru tymhorol newidiol (Wainwright et al., 2019, erthygl blog), ac ymchwil sy'n penderfynu patrymau newid dyodiad tymhorol mewn modelau caniatáu darfudiad (Wainwright et al., 2021). Cwblhawyd y gwaith hwn fel rhan o Brosiect HyCRISTAL.
Yn ogystal, rwyf wedi datblygu'r fethodoleg ymhellach ar gyfer penderfynu cychwyn a rhoi'r gorau i ddosbarthu tymhorau gwlyb a sych trwy gydol y trofannau, er mwyn archwilio newidiadau mewn eithafion glawiad mewn tymhorau gwlyb a sych ar wahân ar draws y trofannau. Canfuwyd bod amcanestyniadau hinsawdd y dyfodol yn dangos cynnydd mwy yn hyd cyfnodau sych a chynnydd mwy yn y tymhorau sych nag yn y tymhorau gwlyb (Wainwright et al., 2021). Cyfrannodd hyn at brosiect gyda melysion mawr yn y DU yn edrych ar newid addasrwydd hinsoddol ar gyfer tyfu coco o dan newid hinsawdd yn y dyfodol. Rhoddodd cyfarfod rheolaidd â chynrychiolwyr o'r melysion wybod i ni y gallai tymhorau sych mwy eithafol fod yn heriol i goco, sy'n gnwd lluosflwydd, felly roedd y canfyddiadau hyn ar gyfnodau sych hirach yn ystod tymhorau sych yn arbennig o bwysig ac yn berthnasol yn fasnachol.
Ar hyn o bryd, rwy'n archwilio'r tymor sych i drawsnewidiadau tymor gwlyb dros Ddwyrain Affrica, yn benodol, y gyrwyr sy'n arwain at ddigwyddiadau glawiad ar ddiwedd y tymor sych, sy'n nodi'r newid i'r tymor gwlyb.
Yn ddiweddar, rwyf hefyd wedi dechrau gweithio mwy mewn meysydd sy'n ymwneud ag effeithiau amrywioldeb hinsawdd dros Affrica, yn enwedig gweithio ym meysydd cynhyrchu ynni adnewyddadwy ac iechyd. Ar hyn o bryd rwy'n ymwneud â phrosiect sy'n edrych ar effaith yr hinsawdd ar ymfudo ym Madagascar.
Bûm hefyd yn gweithio ar brosiect SWIFT Affrica, gan ymchwilio i is-dymhorol i ddarogan tymhorol dros Affrica drofannol. Roedd rhan o hyn yn cynnwys gweithio gydag amaethwyr yn Ghana i gynhyrchu cynhyrchion rhagflas is-dymhorol ar gyfer cynllunio amaethyddol (Hirons et al., 2023). Rwy'n gweithio fwyfwy mewn rhybudd cynnar a pharodrwydd, a siaradais am hyn mewn digwyddiad ochr COP27.
Addysgu
Rwy'n addysgu ar ystod o fodiwlau a theithiau maes ar bynciau sy'n ymwneud â phrosesau atmosfferig a newid yn yr hinsawdd. Ar hyn o bryd, rwy'n dysgu ar y modiwlau canlynol.
- Y System Ocean-Atmosffer
- Newid yn yr Hinsawdd, Addasu a Gwydnwch
- Kos Fieldtrip
- Ymchwiliad Data Her Fawr
Bywgraffiad
2023 - : Lecturer at Cardiff University
2022: Research Fellowship at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College, London
2018-2021: Post-Doctoral Researcher at the University of Reading
Themâu ymchwil
Arbenigeddau
- Meteoroleg drofannol
- Gwyddor newid hinsawdd
- Effeithiau ac addasu newid hinsawdd
- Darogan y Tywydd