Welsh Institute For Research in Economics and Development

Research

Research and Development and Innovation

Innovation is the fundamental driver of economic growth, but the “inputs” of innovation - Research and Development - have externalities due to the public goods nature of knowledge. We examine the spillover effects of Research and Development, productivity effects of innovation, and policy implications.

• Ahamed, M. M., Luintel, K. B. and Mallick, S. K. 2023. Does local knowledge spillover matter for firm productivity? The role of financial access and corporate governance. Research Policy 52(8), article number: 104837. (10.1016/j.respol.2023.104837)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2023. Specialisation precedes diversification: R&D productivity effects. Research Policy 52(7), article number: 104808. (10.1016/j.respol.2023.104808)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2022. R&D subsidies and productivity in eastern European countries. Economic Systems 46(2), article number: 100978. (10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100978)
• Luintel, K. B. and Khan, M. 2017. Ideas production and international knowledge spillovers: digging deeper into emerging countries. Research Policy 46(10), pp. 1738-1754. (10.1016/j.respol.2017.07.009)

See also: Effectiveness and efficiency of SME innovation policy and Dr Peng Zhou – Innovation

Fiscal Devolution

There has been a trend in many countries to devolve fiscal powers to subnational governments. In the context of tax devolution in Wales, Foreman-Peck and Zhou develop an indirect approach to establishing lower bound revenue impacts of possible devolved tax changes by allowing for tax-induced migration. In the context of expenditure devolution in China, we propose the optimal fiscal federalism to balance welfare and growth.

• Chen, X., Mi, H. and Zhou, P. 2023. Whether to decentralize and how to decentralize? The optimal fiscal federalism in an endogenous growth model. Applied Economics (10.1080/00036846.2023.2206629)
• Luintel, K., Matthews, K., Minford, L., Valentinyi, A. and Wang, B. 2020. The role of provincial government spending composition in growth and convergence in China. Economic Modelling 90, pp. 117-134. (10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.024)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2020. Devolving fiscal policy: migration and tax yields. Regional Studies 54(3), pp. 308-317. (10.1080/00343404.2019.1602256)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2020. Welsh taxes. Welsh Economic Review 27, pp. 18-24. (10.18573/wer.254)
• Policy impact: Consultation on the impact of variations in national and sub-national income tax: Submission to the Finance Committee of the National Assembly of Wales by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou, Cardiff University, January 2020
• Policy impact: Welsh Parliament Finance Committee 04 March 2020
• Policy impact: 2019-2020, An assessment of the possibilities, scope and practicality of a land value tax for Wales, £9,289 funded by Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales)

See also: Dr Peng Zhou (Joe) - Devolution

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The United Nations established 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals pertain to fostering harmony between human-nature and human-human interactions. We examine the roles of green finance, economic inequality, and sustainability awareness in achieving SDGs.

• Yang, X. and Zhou, P. 2022. Wealth inequality and social mobility: A simulation-based modelling approach. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 196, pp. 307-329. (10.1016/j.jebo.2022.02.012)
• Guo, D. and Zhou, P. 2021. Green bonds as hedging assets before and after COVID: a comparative study between the US and China. Energy Economics 104, article number: 105696. (10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105696)
• Zhang, B., Zhang, Y. and Zhou, P. 2021. Consumer attitude towards sustainability of fast fashion products in the UK. Sustainability 13(4), article number: 1646.
• Minford, P., Wang, Y. and Zhou, P. 2020. Resolving the public-sector wage premium puzzle by indirect inference. Applied Economics 52(7), pp. 726-741. (10.1080/00036846.2019.1648748)
• (10.3390/su13041646)

See also: Dr Peng Zhou – Basic Goods

Health and Healthcare

Health is a fundamental need and healthcare is an essential service. We examine causes and effects of health as well as evaluation frameworks of healthcare services.

• Matthews, K., Heravi, S., Morgan, P., Page, N., Shepherd, J. and Sivarajasingam, V. 2023. Alcohol prices, the April effect, and the environment, in violence-related injury in England and Wales. European Journal of Health Economics (10.1007/s10198-023-01583-w)
• Kalebic, N. et al. 2022. The all-Wales forensic adolescent consultation and treatment service (FACTS): A 5-year referral cohort study. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 32(3) (10.1002/cbm.2244)
• Yun, Z., Zhou, P. and Zhang, B. 2022. High-performance work systems, thriving at work, and job burnout among nurses in Chinese public hospitals: The role of resilience at work. Healthcare 10(10), article number: 1935. (10.3390/healthcare10101935)
• Zhang, B. and Zhou, P. 2020. An economic evaluation framework for government-funded home adaptation schemes: a quantitative approach. Healthcare 8(3), article number: 345. (10.3390/healthcare8030345)
• Dai, L. and Zhou, P. 2020. The health issues of the homeless and the homeless issues of the ill-health. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 69, article number: 100677. (10.1016/j.seps.2018.12.004)
• Choudhury, M. et al. 2019. Association between HbA1c and the development of cystic fibrosis‐related diabetes. Diabetic Medicine 36(10), pp. 1251-1255. (10.1111/dme.13912)

Policy impact: A review of independent living adaptations, 2015 Welsh Government.

School Effectiveness

The literature on school performance raises questions over the most effective size of a sixth form school and the potential negative impact on KS4 attainment in schools where small sixth forms may be subsidised from non-sixth form budgets. In light of the above concerns the Welsh Government commissioned an analysis of the impact of school sixth form size on educational attainment of pupils at Key Stage 5 (KS5), controlled for exam scores two years earlier (i.e., KS4).

• Policy impact: The impact of school sixth form size on educational attainment of pupils at Key Stage 5, 2016 Welsh Government

International Economics

The modern economy features a globalised trade system, financial market, and labour market. We examine the causes and effects of economic activities in these international dimensions.

• Wei, H., Tu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2023. Technical barriers to trade and export performance: Comparing exiting and staying firms. Economic Modelling, article number: 106439. (10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106439)
• Wei, H., Deng, L. and Zhou, P. 2023. The impact of globalization on domestic employment. Applied Economics 55(29), pp. 3390-3403. (10.1080/00036846.2022.2114998)
• Zhou, B., Zhang, Y. and Zhou, P. 2021. Multilateral political effects on outbound tourism. Annals of Tourism Research 88, article number: 103184. (10.1016/j.annals.2021.103184)
• Guo, D. and Zhou, P. 2021. The rise of a new anchor currency in RCEP? A tale of three currencies. Economic Modelling 104, article number: 105647. (10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105647)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2015. Firm-level evidence for the language investment effect on SME Exporters. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 62(4), pp. 351-377.

See also: The costs to the UK of language deficiencies as a barrier to UK engagement in exporting

Economic Growth

Financial development is essential for economic growth in the modern epoch, but mortality shocks (natural selection) and marriage patterns (family selection) are the forces pushing human society out of the Malthusian trap. In an empirical unified growth model, Foreman-Peck and Zhou show that the Industrial Revolution was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death.

• Zhang, B. and Zhou, P. 2021. Financial development and economic growth in a microfounded small open economy model. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 58, article number: 101544. (10.1016/j.najef.2021.101544)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2020. Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria. Journal of Population Economics 34, pp. 1073-1104. (10.1007/s00148-020-00813-2)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2019. Response to Edwards and Ogilvie. Economic History Review 72(4), pp. 1477-1450. (10.1111/ehr.12819)
• Foreman-Peck, J. and Zhou, P. 2018. Late marriage as a contributor to the Industrial Revolution in England. Economic History Review 71(4), pp. 1073-1099. (10.1111/ehr.12651)
• Chen, X., Minford, A. P. L., Tian, K. and Zhou, P. 2017. Who provides the capital for Chinese growth: the public or the private sector?. Applied Economics 49(23), pp. 2238-2252. (10.1080/00036846.2016.1234704)
• Luintel, K. B., Khan, M., Leon-Gonzalez, R. and Li, G. 2016. Financial development, structure and growth: new data, method and results. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 43, pp. 95-112. (10.1016/j.intfin.2016.04.002)

Money, Banking, and Finance

Modern business cycles are mainly driven by productivity disturbances (New Classical), monetary policies (New Keynesian), and credit cycles (New Monetarism). We try to understand micro and macro mechanisms underlying business cycles such as shadow banking, credit crunch, and liberalisation.

• Zhao, T., Luintel, K. B. and Matthews, K. 2021. Soft information and the geography of SME bank lending. Regional Studies 55(4), pp. 679-692. (10.1080/00343404.2020.1851024)
• Wang, C., Le, V. P. M., Matthews, K. and Zhou, P. 2021. Shadow banking activity and entrusted loans in a DSGE model of China. Manchester School 89(5), pp. 445-469. (10.1111/manc.12319)
• Dixon, H., Luintel, K. and Tian, K. 2020. The impact of the 2008 crisis on UK prices: what we can learn from the CPI microdata. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 82(6), pp. 1322-1341. (10.1111/obes.12373)
• Huang, J., Matthews, K. and Zhou, P. 2020. What causes Chinese listed firms to switch bank loan provider? Evidence from a survival analysis. Emerging Markets Review 43, article number: 100678. (10.1016/j.ememar.2020.100678)
• Zhou, P. and Dixon, H. 2019. The determinants of price rigidity in the UK: Analysis of the CPI and PPI microdata and application to macrodata modelling. Manchester School 87(5), pp. 640-677. (10.1111/manc.12263)
• Luintel, K., Selim, S. and Bajracharya, P. 2017. Liberalization, bankers’ motivation and productivity: A simple model with an application. Economic Modelling 61, pp. 102-112. (10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.017)

Disruptive Technologies

Disruptive technologies refer to innovations or advancements that significantly alter the way products are created, services are delivered, or industries operate, often leading to a fundamental transformation of the existing market landscape. We examine the adoption, application, and consequences of disruptive technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), blockchain, and big data.