![Joshy Easaw](https://profiles-cardiff.imgix.net/attachments/86?w=200&h=200&auto=format&crop=faces&fit=crop&q=90")
Professor Joshy Easaw
Professor of Economics
- EasawJ1@cardiff.ac.uk
- +44 29208 76218
- Aberconway Building, Room E32, Colum Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF10 3EU
- Available for postgraduate supervision
Overview
I joined the Economics Section in CARBS in October 2014, having previously I held permanent appointments at the Universities of Bath and Swansea.
My research areas include the macroeconomics expectations and forecasts and the impact of monetary policy and aggregate uncertainty, learning and bounded rationality. I also research and publish widely in the area of political economy. Focussing on the interaction of economic and political institutions and its impact on income distribution and developing economies and economic voting. I have and continue to supervise PhD students in both macroeconomics and political economy.
I am currently a member of the Royal Economic Society and past member of the American Economic Association and Econometric Society. I am presently a Visiting Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy.
I received my PhD from the University of Leicester 1998.
Publication
2024
- Easaw, J. and Grimme, C. 2024. The relationship between aggregate uncertainty and firm-level uncertainty. Oxford Economic Papers, article number: gpae004. (10.1093/oep/gpae004)
- Bucciol, A., Easaw, J. and Trucchi, S. 2024. Household income expectations: The role of income shocks and aggregate conditions. Working paper. Cardiff Business School.
2023
- Easaw, J. Z. and Leppala, S. 2023. Democracy, state capacity and public finance. Economic Inquiry 61(2), pp. 301-321. (10.1111/ecin.13115)
- Easaw, J., Fang, Y. and Heravi, S. 2023. Using polls to forecast popular vote share for US Presidential Elections 2016 and 2020: An optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical model. Journal of the Operational Research Society 74(3), pp. 905-911. (10.1080/01605682.2022.2101951)
- Easaw, J., Minford, A. and Yu, C. J. 2023. "Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation",. Economic Modelling 118, article number: 106076. (10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106076)
2022
- Easaw, J., G, A. and Mauro, C. 2022. Estimating uncertainty spillover effects across euro area using a regime dependent VAR model. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (10.1515/snde-2021-0107)
- Easaw, J. and Golinelli, R. 2022. Professionals inflation forecasts: the two dimensions of forecaster inattentiveness. Oxford Economic Papers 74(3), pp. 701-720. (10.1093/oep/gpab012)
2021
- Easaw, J., Fang, Y. and Heravi, S. 2021. Using polls to forecast popular vote share for US presidential elections 2016 and 2020: an optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical model. Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University.
- Chou, J., Easaw, J. and Minford, A. 2021. Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation. Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University.
- Easaw, J. and Grimme, C. 2021. The impact of aggregate uncertainty on firm-level uncertainty. Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - ESifo GmbH.
- Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2021. Public opinion as nowcast: consistency and the role of news uncertainty. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 45(2), pp. 100-110. (10.1080/0022250X.2020.1732371)
2020
- Dixon, H., Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2020. Forecasting inflation gap persistence: do financial sector professionals differ from non-financial sector ones?. International Journal of Finance and Economics 25(3), pp. 461-474. (10.1002/ijfe.1762)
2019
- Easaw, J. and Leppala, S. 2019. Democracy, State Capacity and Public Finance. Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2019-19.html
- Holmes, J. M., Ash, C. and Easaw, J. Z. 2019. David J. Smyth: An appreciation of his work. Journal of Macroeconomics 60, pp. A1-A8. (10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.03.005)
2018
- Hassani, H., Coreman, J., Heravi, S. and Easaw, J. 2018. Forecasting inflation rate: professional against academic, which one is more accurate. Journal of Quantitative Economics 16(3), pp. 631-646. (10.1007/s40953-017-0114-3)
2015
- Easaw, J. and Mossay, P. 2015. Households forming macroeconomic expectations: inattentive behavior with social learning. BE Journal of Macroeconomics 15(1), pp. 339-363. (10.1515/bejm-2014-0039)
2014
- Easaw, J. and Golinelli, R. 2014. Inflation expectations and the two forms of inattentiveness. Working paper. Cardiff: Cardiff University.
- Easaw, J., Ghoshray, A. and Heravi, S. 2014. Households' forming subjective expectations using perceived news: do shocks to ‘good’ news matter more than ‘bad’ news?. The Manchester School 82(1), pp. 1-16. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2012.02333.x)
2013
- Easaw, J., Golinelli, R. and Malgarini, M. 2013. What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey. European Economic Review 61, pp. 1-13. (10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.02.009)
- Amendola, A., Easaw, J. and Savoia, A. 2013. Inequality in developing economies: the role of institutional development. Public Choice 155(1-2), pp. 43-60. (10.1007/s11127-011-9838-3)
2011
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2011. ‘The island man's behavior’: Some microfoundations of how households form macroeconomic expectations. Manchester School 79(4), pp. 789-810. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02174.x)
2010
- Easaw, J. 2010. It’s all ‘bad’ news! Voters’ perception of macroeconomic policy competence. Public Choice 145(1-2), pp. 253-264. (10.1007/s11127-009-9564-2)
- Smyth, D. and Easaw, J. 2010. Unemployment hysteresis and the NAIRU: a ratchet model. Applied Economics Letters 8(6), pp. 359-362. (10.1080/135048501750237775)
- Easaw, J. and Garratt, D. 2010. Elections and UK government expenditure cycles in the 1980s: an empirical analysis. Applied Economics 32, pp. 381-391. (10.1080/000368400322804)
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2010. News and households' subjective macroeconomic expectations. Journal of Macroeconomics 32(1), pp. 469-475. (10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.12.002)
- Savoia, A., Easaw, J. and McKay, A. 2010. Inequality, Democracy, and Institutions: A Critical Review of Recent Research. World Development 38(2), pp. 142-154. (10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.10.009)
- Easaw, J. and Golinelli, R. 2010. Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 10(1), pp. -. (10.2202/1935-1690.2070)
2009
- Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2009. Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey. Journal of Forecasting 28(8), pp. 667-680. (10.1002/for.1114)
- Davies, S., Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2009. Mental accounting and remittances: A study of rural Malawian households. Journal of Economic Psychology 30(3), pp. 321-334. (10.1016/j.joep.2009.03.003)
2008
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2008. The cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices in the US and UK. The Journal of Socio-Economics 37(5), pp. 1994-1998. (10.1016/j.socec.2008.01.011)
- Abbott, A., Easaw, J. and Xing, T. 2008. Trade Integration and Business Cycle Convergence: Is the Relation Robust across Time and Space?. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 110(2), pp. 403-417. (10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00539.x)
2007
- Clark, E. and Easaw, J. 2007. Optimal access pricing for natural monopoly networks when costs are sunk and revenues are uncertain. European Journal of Operational Research 178(2), pp. 595-602. (10.1016/j.ejor.2006.02.003)
2006
- Easaw, J. and Garratt, D. 2006. General elections and government expenditure cycles: Theory and evidence from the UK. European Journal of Political Economy 22(2), pp. -. (10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2005.08.003)
- Easaw, J. 2006. Network Access Regulation and Competition Policy: An Assessment of the “Direct-Plus-Opportunity Cost” Regime and Policy Options. Empirica 37(2), pp. 133-156. (10.1023/A:1026576313739)
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2006. Agent-Based Learning in 'Islands' with 'Sticky Information': An Explanation for the Persistence of Real Effects. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38(1), pp. 263-268. (10.1353/mcb.2006.0015)
2005
- Easaw, J., Garratt, D. and Heravi, S. 2005. Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?. Journal of Macroeconomics 27(3), pp. 517-532. (10.1016/j.jmacro.2004.03.001)
2004
- Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2004. Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior. International Journal of Forecasting 20(4), pp. 671-681. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.12.006)
2002
- Ash, J. C. K., Easaw, J. Z., Heravi, S. M. and Smyth, D. J. 2002. Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?. Empirical Economics 27(4), pp. 631-643. (10.1007/s001810100107)
2001
- Dixon, H. D. and Easaw, J. 2001. Strategic responses to regulatory policies: What lessons can be learned from the UK contract gas market?. Review of Industrial Organization 18(4), pp. 379-396. (10.1023/A:1007835701360)
1999
- Easaw, J. and Garratt, D. 1999. UK government expenditure and electoral security in the 1980s: a non-linear analysis. Economics Letters 62(3), pp. 287-292. (10.1016/S0165-1765(98)00241-9)
Articles
- Easaw, J. and Grimme, C. 2024. The relationship between aggregate uncertainty and firm-level uncertainty. Oxford Economic Papers, article number: gpae004. (10.1093/oep/gpae004)
- Easaw, J. Z. and Leppala, S. 2023. Democracy, state capacity and public finance. Economic Inquiry 61(2), pp. 301-321. (10.1111/ecin.13115)
- Easaw, J., Fang, Y. and Heravi, S. 2023. Using polls to forecast popular vote share for US Presidential Elections 2016 and 2020: An optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical model. Journal of the Operational Research Society 74(3), pp. 905-911. (10.1080/01605682.2022.2101951)
- Easaw, J., Minford, A. and Yu, C. J. 2023. "Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation",. Economic Modelling 118, article number: 106076. (10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106076)
- Easaw, J., G, A. and Mauro, C. 2022. Estimating uncertainty spillover effects across euro area using a regime dependent VAR model. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (10.1515/snde-2021-0107)
- Easaw, J. and Golinelli, R. 2022. Professionals inflation forecasts: the two dimensions of forecaster inattentiveness. Oxford Economic Papers 74(3), pp. 701-720. (10.1093/oep/gpab012)
- Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2021. Public opinion as nowcast: consistency and the role of news uncertainty. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 45(2), pp. 100-110. (10.1080/0022250X.2020.1732371)
- Dixon, H., Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2020. Forecasting inflation gap persistence: do financial sector professionals differ from non-financial sector ones?. International Journal of Finance and Economics 25(3), pp. 461-474. (10.1002/ijfe.1762)
- Holmes, J. M., Ash, C. and Easaw, J. Z. 2019. David J. Smyth: An appreciation of his work. Journal of Macroeconomics 60, pp. A1-A8. (10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.03.005)
- Hassani, H., Coreman, J., Heravi, S. and Easaw, J. 2018. Forecasting inflation rate: professional against academic, which one is more accurate. Journal of Quantitative Economics 16(3), pp. 631-646. (10.1007/s40953-017-0114-3)
- Easaw, J. and Mossay, P. 2015. Households forming macroeconomic expectations: inattentive behavior with social learning. BE Journal of Macroeconomics 15(1), pp. 339-363. (10.1515/bejm-2014-0039)
- Easaw, J., Ghoshray, A. and Heravi, S. 2014. Households' forming subjective expectations using perceived news: do shocks to ‘good’ news matter more than ‘bad’ news?. The Manchester School 82(1), pp. 1-16. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2012.02333.x)
- Easaw, J., Golinelli, R. and Malgarini, M. 2013. What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey. European Economic Review 61, pp. 1-13. (10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.02.009)
- Amendola, A., Easaw, J. and Savoia, A. 2013. Inequality in developing economies: the role of institutional development. Public Choice 155(1-2), pp. 43-60. (10.1007/s11127-011-9838-3)
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2011. ‘The island man's behavior’: Some microfoundations of how households form macroeconomic expectations. Manchester School 79(4), pp. 789-810. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02174.x)
- Easaw, J. 2010. It’s all ‘bad’ news! Voters’ perception of macroeconomic policy competence. Public Choice 145(1-2), pp. 253-264. (10.1007/s11127-009-9564-2)
- Smyth, D. and Easaw, J. 2010. Unemployment hysteresis and the NAIRU: a ratchet model. Applied Economics Letters 8(6), pp. 359-362. (10.1080/135048501750237775)
- Easaw, J. and Garratt, D. 2010. Elections and UK government expenditure cycles in the 1980s: an empirical analysis. Applied Economics 32, pp. 381-391. (10.1080/000368400322804)
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2010. News and households' subjective macroeconomic expectations. Journal of Macroeconomics 32(1), pp. 469-475. (10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.12.002)
- Savoia, A., Easaw, J. and McKay, A. 2010. Inequality, Democracy, and Institutions: A Critical Review of Recent Research. World Development 38(2), pp. 142-154. (10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.10.009)
- Easaw, J. and Golinelli, R. 2010. Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 10(1), pp. -. (10.2202/1935-1690.2070)
- Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2009. Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey. Journal of Forecasting 28(8), pp. 667-680. (10.1002/for.1114)
- Davies, S., Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2009. Mental accounting and remittances: A study of rural Malawian households. Journal of Economic Psychology 30(3), pp. 321-334. (10.1016/j.joep.2009.03.003)
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2008. The cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices in the US and UK. The Journal of Socio-Economics 37(5), pp. 1994-1998. (10.1016/j.socec.2008.01.011)
- Abbott, A., Easaw, J. and Xing, T. 2008. Trade Integration and Business Cycle Convergence: Is the Relation Robust across Time and Space?. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 110(2), pp. 403-417. (10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00539.x)
- Clark, E. and Easaw, J. 2007. Optimal access pricing for natural monopoly networks when costs are sunk and revenues are uncertain. European Journal of Operational Research 178(2), pp. 595-602. (10.1016/j.ejor.2006.02.003)
- Easaw, J. and Garratt, D. 2006. General elections and government expenditure cycles: Theory and evidence from the UK. European Journal of Political Economy 22(2), pp. -. (10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2005.08.003)
- Easaw, J. 2006. Network Access Regulation and Competition Policy: An Assessment of the “Direct-Plus-Opportunity Cost” Regime and Policy Options. Empirica 37(2), pp. 133-156. (10.1023/A:1026576313739)
- Easaw, J. and Ghoshray, A. 2006. Agent-Based Learning in 'Islands' with 'Sticky Information': An Explanation for the Persistence of Real Effects. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38(1), pp. 263-268. (10.1353/mcb.2006.0015)
- Easaw, J., Garratt, D. and Heravi, S. 2005. Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?. Journal of Macroeconomics 27(3), pp. 517-532. (10.1016/j.jmacro.2004.03.001)
- Easaw, J. and Heravi, S. 2004. Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior. International Journal of Forecasting 20(4), pp. 671-681. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.12.006)
- Ash, J. C. K., Easaw, J. Z., Heravi, S. M. and Smyth, D. J. 2002. Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?. Empirical Economics 27(4), pp. 631-643. (10.1007/s001810100107)
- Dixon, H. D. and Easaw, J. 2001. Strategic responses to regulatory policies: What lessons can be learned from the UK contract gas market?. Review of Industrial Organization 18(4), pp. 379-396. (10.1023/A:1007835701360)
- Easaw, J. and Garratt, D. 1999. UK government expenditure and electoral security in the 1980s: a non-linear analysis. Economics Letters 62(3), pp. 287-292. (10.1016/S0165-1765(98)00241-9)
Monographs
- Bucciol, A., Easaw, J. and Trucchi, S. 2024. Household income expectations: The role of income shocks and aggregate conditions. Working paper. Cardiff Business School.
- Easaw, J., Fang, Y. and Heravi, S. 2021. Using polls to forecast popular vote share for US presidential elections 2016 and 2020: an optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical model. Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University.
- Chou, J., Easaw, J. and Minford, A. 2021. Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation. Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University.
- Easaw, J. and Grimme, C. 2021. The impact of aggregate uncertainty on firm-level uncertainty. Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - ESifo GmbH.
- Easaw, J. and Leppala, S. 2019. Democracy, State Capacity and Public Finance. Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2019-19.html
- Easaw, J. and Golinelli, R. 2014. Inflation expectations and the two forms of inattentiveness. Working paper. Cardiff: Cardiff University.
Research
Research interests:
- Macroeconomic Theory and Modelling:
- Bounded rationality
- Microfoundations of how households form subjective macro (or aggregate) expectations:
- Professional forecasters’ inattentiveness
- Households forming expectations through ‘social learning’ in a spatial context.
- Spatial volatility and its impact on convergence.
2. Political Economy and Development Economics:
- Political Economy:
- Government expenditure cycles around elections, and
- Psychology of Economic voting: how voters form perceptions about policy-makers competence (monetary and fiscal policy) taking a bounded rationality approach, such as using their sentiments and ‘news’.
- The dual role of democracy and optimal government intervention.
- Developing Economics: The interaction of political and economic insitutions and its imapct on the inequality-growth nexus, with specific references to developing economies. Investigating the impact ‘democratization’ in developing economies.
Awarded Leverhulme Trusts Research Fellowship: October 2007 to September 2008 ‘Microfoundations of how households form subjective macroeconomic expectations: The role of news’.
PhD supervision research interests
Macroeconomic expectations and forecasting.
Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting and Inflation Gap
State-dependent Modelling
Political Economy, Institutions and Growth (Developing Economies)
Economic Voting and Informational Economics
Recent Working Papers:
-
Easaw, Joshy & Grimme Christian, 2021, "The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty" CESifo Working Paper Series.
Teaching
Teaching commitments: Undergraduate and Postgraduate
- Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
- Development Economics
- Political Economy
- Financial Economic
Biography
Educated at the universities of Oxford, Essex, Glasgow and Leicester. Previously held tenured (permanent) positions at the universities of Bath and Swansea.
Successfully completed seven PhD supervision in the areas of macroeconomic, political economy and development economics. My PhD students are currently employed in academia (University of Manchester, Taiwan and China) and as professional economist (World Bank)
Recent PhDs in CARBS:
Jen-Yu Chen: Evaluating the Impact of Inattentiveness in a DSGE Model, Awarded, March 2019
Bo Guan: Generalised State Dependent Models: Applications in Economics and Finance, Awarded. April 2021.
Yang Sun: Innovation, Property Rights: Inequality-Growth Nexus, Current (4th year).
Honours and awards
Awarded Leverhulme Trusts Research Fellowship: October 2007 to September 2008 'Microfoundations of how households form subjective macroeconomic expectations: The role of news'.
Supervisions
Successfully completed seven PhD supervision in the areas of macroeconomic, political economy and development economics. My PhD students are currently employed in academia (University of Manchester, Taiwan and China) and as professional economist (World Bank)
PhD supervision research interests
Macroeconomic expectations and forecasting.
Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting and Inflation Gap
State-dependent Modelling
Political Economy, Institutions and Growth (Developing Economies)
Economic Voting and Informational Economics.