Cardiff Business School

CBS Faculty

 

Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics

Papers on Monetary Policy

• Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?, with Jingwen Fan, December 2009
• Testing the Monetary Policy Rule in the US: A Reconsideration of the Fed's Behaviour, with Zhirong Ou, September 2009
• Determinacy in New Keynesian models: a role for money after all?, with Naveen Srinivasan, September 2009
• The Banking Crisis - A Rational Interpretation
• Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?, with David Meenagh, Eric Nowell, Prakriti Sofat, and Naveen Srinivasan. April 2008
• Calvo Contracts - Optimal Indexation in General Equilibrium with Le, Vo Phuong Mai, updated October 2008. Appendix with full model listing.
• Calvo Contracts - A Critique with David Peel
• Are Central Bank Preferences Asymmetric? A Comment, with Naveen Srinivasan, 2008, forthcoming in Economic Notes
• Opportunistic Monetary Policy: an Alternative Rationalization, with Naveen Srinivasan. Journal of Economics and Business, 58, October-November 2006, 366-372.
• What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?, published in National Institute Economic Review, vol 196, April 2006, 92-106.
• Monetary Policy - should it move onto a price level target?, The AW Phillips memorial lecture to the New Zealand Association of Economists, July 2004
• Nominal contracting and monetary targets-drifting towards indexation, with Eric Nowell and Bruce Webb, (acrobat pdf file) Published in Economic Journal, 113 (January 2003)
• Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor Rule?, with Francesco Perugini and Naveen Srinivasan, Full version, Economics Letters version (pdf file) published in Economics Letters, 76 (1) (2002) pp. 145-150
• Exploitability as a specification test of the Phillips Curve, with David Peel pdf file, TeX file

Open Economy

• Can a pure Real Business Cycle Model explain the real exchange rate? with Prakriti Sofat, Eric Nowell and David Meenagh. Updated April 2008.
• On the equality of Real Interest Rates across borders in Integrated Capital Markets, with David Peel, Open Economies Review, 18(1), 2007.
• Joining the European Monetary Union - comparing first and second generation open economy models, with Vo Phuong Mai Le, updated 20/1/2006. Published in Open Economies Review, Volume 17, Number 3/July 2006.
• Comments on Bayoumi, Laxton and Pesenti, revised January 2005
• Notes on second generation open economy models: the 'workhorse model'

Supply Side

• Growth and relative living standards - testing Barriers to Riches on post-war panel data, with David Meenagh and Jiang Wang
• Public Spending and Growth with Jiang Wang
• Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth with David Meenagh and Jiang Wang
• Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA with Kent Matthews and Ruthira Naraidoo, published in European Journal of Political Economy
  Volume 24, Issue 3, September 2008, Pages 605-614
• forthcoming in European Journal of Political Economy
• Agenda for tax reform, Centre for Policy Studies, 2006, pp. 19
• Agenda for a Reforming Government, updated 22/2/06
• Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment, with Ruthira Naraidoo, forthcoming in South African Journal of Economics Vol. 78:1 March 2010, pp. 1-22
  

Financial Economics

• Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes - a
  new test of market efficiency with David Meenagh and David Peel, Economics Letters, 94 (2007), 235-239.
• Explaining the Equity Risk Premium with Laurian Lungu, in Manchester School, 74(6),December, 2006, 670-700.
• The Equity Risk premium and the prospects for markets Powerpoint presentation of speech to 2006 conference of SIFA - the support group for solicitors and accountancy based IFAs

Estimation and Testing

• Some problems in the testing of DSGE models, with Vo Phuong Mai Le and Michael Wickens, December 2009
• The 'Puzzles' methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?, with Vo Phuong Mai Le and Michael Wickens, October 2009
• Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference, with Vo Phuong Mai Le, David Meenagh and Michael Wickens.
• How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference, with Vo Phuong Mai Le and Michael Wickens. See also Supporting Annex.
• Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference, with David Meenagh and Michael Wickens, updated December 2008. See also Supporting Annex.
• Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference, with Konstantinos Theodoridis and David Meenagh, see also appendices. Updated April 2008
• Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML- a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits, with Bruce Webb, published in Economic Modelling 22(1), January 2005, pp. 187-205 .PDF file - updated August 2004, also appendices, Small Model Annex and Large Model Annex.
• A matlab function to evaluate the LM statistic for investigating Heteroscedasticity in a multivariate framework, as it is described by Doornik (1996) and Kelejian (1982) (K.A.Theodoridis)

 

 

Policy towards the EU

• Should Britain Leave the EU?: An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship, with Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell, Edward Elgar and The Institute of Economic Affairs, May 2005. A late draft version can be seen here, or buy it here.

• Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability, with David Meenagh and Bruce Webb- revised December 2003
  
  also printed[*] in
  
  Minford, Patrick, Meenagh, David & Webb, Bruce (2004) Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability. The World Economy 27 (3), 301-358.
  
  [*] This is an electronic version of an article published in The World Economy complete citation information for the final version of the paper, as published in the print edition of The World Economy, is available on the Blackwell Synergy online delivery service, accessible via the journal's website at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 or http://www.blackwell-synergy.com
• Should Britain join the euro?- the Chancellor's five tests examined - published as IEA Occasional Paper 126, September 2002

Other Pages

• Current Research Interests
• Curriculum Vitae
• Published Work
• Modelling the UK economy- an overview of a research programme
• Business Topics