Evaluating the Success of Urban Cycle Networks

A study has been undertaken to attempt to identify the relative importance of different factors in the decision to undertake the journey to work by cycle and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing cycle networks to help to plan for future links.

The two main stages of the study involved: . a questionnaire to obtain data from cyclists about their journey to work and the factors behind the choice of mode of transport,
. the use of spatial analysis mapping techniques to assess how well individual journeys to work can be predicted.

The prediction of routes will enable planners to assess how successful current urban cycle networks are and to identify where future networks would be best located. The study was funded by the Department for Transport and partners included Bristol City Council, Cardiff County Council, City of York Council, Sustrans, Halcrow, Dawes cycles and the AA. Bristol, Cardiff and York were used as case study cities to investigate different existing urban cycle networks.

Questionnaire Results

1245 'Do you cycle to work?' questionnaires were returned - Bristol 40% (390), Cardiff 52% (514) and York 35% (341). Full details of the questionnaire results can be obtained from the author. Responses relevant to the mapping procedure include: Distance travelled to work in all three cities is very similar with an average of 81% of respondents travelling less than 5 miles to work and 78% of respondents cycle to work in less than 30 minutes. Cyclists in Cardiff spend more journey time on designated cycle routes than in any other city. Exposure to traffic was the most influential factor in route choice in all three cities. Cycle lane provision the second most important factor for around 60% of respondents. 78% of cyclists in York believed they took the shortest route to work, in Cardiff this dropped to 62%. Cyclists in Cardiff state that a change in most factors would encourage them to cycle to work more often. 82% of cyclists wanted safer routes to their workplace to encourage them to cycle more often. 67% cited better facilities at work as a factor that would encourage more commuting by bike. Traffic is seen as the biggest risk in all three cities by an average of 90% of cyclists. Difficult junctions are perceived as the second highest risk.

Spatial Analysis Results

An evaluation of the existing cycle network has been made using spatial analysis procedures. This compared predicted most direct route with the actual route taken by cyclists to identify whether people increase the length of the route taken to use the cycle network and also to identify where the most integrated routes are that would be the most used by cyclists.

The results of the spatial mapping show that overall 55% of journeys in Cardiff take place on routes with some provision for cyclists, 54% in York and 48% in Bristol and that a higher proportion of the actual journeys take place on the routes where cycle facilities are provided than the predicted route. The route taken to work by cyclists is therefore modified from the most direct route to one that incorporates cycle facilities.

The journey prediction model can predict approximately 25% of all journeys from a location exactly. The model can also be used to predict more than one journey and can also be used to look at where journeys are made from a single location to multiple end points. This modelling facility can therefore be used to look at cycling patterns for a proposed housing estate or a new development with a large workforce to identify routes in the network that may become more integrated and would be used by more cyclists.